TY - JOUR
T1 - Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost?
T2 - A computational simulation of Pennsylvania
AU - Brown, Shawn T.
AU - Tai, Julie H.Y.
AU - Bailey, Rachel R.
AU - Cooley, Philip C.
AU - Wheaton, William D.
AU - Potter, Margaret A.
AU - Voorhees, Ronald E.
AU - LeJeune, Megan
AU - Grefenstette, John J.
AU - Burke, Donald S.
AU - McGlone, Sarah M.
AU - Lee, Bruce Y.
N1 - Funding Information:
Supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) through grant 1U54GM088491-0109, the National Library of Medicine through grant 5R01LM009132-03, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through grant 1P01TP000304-03. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The authors would like to acknowledge Dr. Joshua Epstein at Johns Hopkins University for his many helpful conversations and comments and Greg Hood and Chad Vizino of the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center for their superb computational support.
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - Background: During the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic, policy makers debated over whether, when, and how long to close schools. While closing schools could have reduced influenza transmission thereby preventing cases, deaths, and health care costs, it may also have incurred substantial costs from increased childcare needs and lost productivity by teachers and other school employees. Methods. A combination of agent-based and Monte Carlo economic simulation modeling was used to determine the cost-benefit of closing schools (vs. not closing schools) for different durations (range: 1 to 8 weeks) and symptomatic case incidence triggers (range: 1 to 30) for the state of Pennsylvania during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. Different scenarios varied the basic reproductive rate (R0) from 1.2, 1.6, to 2.0 and used case-hospitalization and case-fatality rates from the 2009 epidemic. Additional analyses determined the cost per influenza case averted of implementing school closure. Results: For all scenarios explored, closing schools resulted in substantially higher net costs than not closing schools. For R0= 1.2, 1.6, and 2.0 epidemics, closing schools for 8 weeks would have resulted in median net costs of $21.0 billion (95% Range: $8.0-$45.3 billion). The median cost per influenza case averted would have been $14,185 ($5,423-$30,565) for R0= 1.2, $25,253 ($9,501-$53,461) for R0= 1.6, and $23,483 ($8,870-$50,926) for R0= 2.0. Conclusions: Our study suggests that closing schools during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic could have resulted in substantial costs to society as the potential costs of lost productivity and childcare could have far outweighed the cost savings in preventing influenza cases.
AB - Background: During the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic, policy makers debated over whether, when, and how long to close schools. While closing schools could have reduced influenza transmission thereby preventing cases, deaths, and health care costs, it may also have incurred substantial costs from increased childcare needs and lost productivity by teachers and other school employees. Methods. A combination of agent-based and Monte Carlo economic simulation modeling was used to determine the cost-benefit of closing schools (vs. not closing schools) for different durations (range: 1 to 8 weeks) and symptomatic case incidence triggers (range: 1 to 30) for the state of Pennsylvania during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. Different scenarios varied the basic reproductive rate (R0) from 1.2, 1.6, to 2.0 and used case-hospitalization and case-fatality rates from the 2009 epidemic. Additional analyses determined the cost per influenza case averted of implementing school closure. Results: For all scenarios explored, closing schools resulted in substantially higher net costs than not closing schools. For R0= 1.2, 1.6, and 2.0 epidemics, closing schools for 8 weeks would have resulted in median net costs of $21.0 billion (95% Range: $8.0-$45.3 billion). The median cost per influenza case averted would have been $14,185 ($5,423-$30,565) for R0= 1.2, $25,253 ($9,501-$53,461) for R0= 1.6, and $23,483 ($8,870-$50,926) for R0= 2.0. Conclusions: Our study suggests that closing schools during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic could have resulted in substantial costs to society as the potential costs of lost productivity and childcare could have far outweighed the cost savings in preventing influenza cases.
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U2 - 10.1186/1471-2458-11-353
DO - 10.1186/1471-2458-11-353
M3 - Article
C2 - 21599920
AN - SCOPUS:79956210487
SN - 1471-2458
VL - 11
JO - BMC public health
JF - BMC public health
M1 - 353
ER -