@article{39ee4c576fb14276a60e6e780951909a,
title = "Vectorial capacity and vector control: Reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination",
abstract = "Background: Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice of vector control intervention has been largely guided by a parameter sensitivity analysis of George Macdonald's theory of vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods that kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice has been highly successful for transmission suppression, there is a need to revisit these arguments as policymakers in certain areas consider which combinations of interventions are required to eliminate malaria. Methods and Results: Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps. These can arise due to pre-existing or developing mosquito physiological and behavioral refractoriness but also due to additive changes in the relative importance of different vector species for transmission. Furthermore, the optimal combination of interventions will depend on the operational constraints and costs associated with reaching high coverage levels with each intervention. Conclusions: Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling. Our results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.",
keywords = "Elimination, Malaria, Modelling, Operational research, Policy, Vector control",
author = "Brady, {Oliver J.} and Godfray, {H. Charles J.} and Tatem, {Andrew J.} and Gething, {Peter W.} and Cohen, {Justin M.} and {Ellis McKenzie}, F. and {Alex Perkins}, T. and Reiner, {Robert C.} and Tusting, {Lucy S.} and Sinka, {Marianne E.} and Moyes, {Catherine L.} and Eckhoff, {Philip A.} and Scott, {Thomas W.} and Lindsay, {Steven W.} and Hay, {Simon I.} and Smith, {David L.}",
note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [#OPP1110495 to DLS, TAP and RCR, #OPP1119467 to OJB and SIH, #OPP1053338 to SWL, #OPP1081737 to RCR and TWS, #OPP1106023 to PWG, #OPP1093011 to CLM, #OPP1106427 to AJT and #1032350 to AJT], National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [#U19AI089674 to DLS and SWL and #P01AI098670 to TAP and TWS], the Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research in Agriculture and Health (to LST), the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (to DLS, TAP, RCR, SWL, TWS, AJT, HCJG and SIH) and the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health through the Vector-Based Control of Transmission: Discovery Research program of the Grand Challenges in Global Health initiative (to HCJG). The Wellcome Trust (#095066) to SIH. The Vector- Borne Disease Network (VecNet) to MES and CLM. Funding Information: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [#OPP1110495 to DLS, TAP and RCR, #OPP1119467 to OJB and SIH, #OPP1053338 to SWL, #OPP1081737 to RCR and TWS, #OPP1106023 to PWG, #OPP1093011 to CLM, #OPP1106427 to AJT and #1032350 to AJT], National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases [#U19AI089674 to DLS and SWL and #P01AI098670 to TAP and TWS], the Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research in Agriculture and Health (to LST), the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) program of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and the Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (to DLS, TAP, RCR, SWL, TWS, AJT, HCJG and SIH) and the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health through the Vector-Based Control of Transmission: Discovery Research program of the Grand Challenges in Global Health initiative (to HCJG). The Wellcome Trust (#095066) to SIH. The Vector- Borne Disease Network (VecNet) to MES and CLM. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author 2016.",
year = "2016",
month = jan,
day = "4",
doi = "10.1093/trstmh/trv113",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "110",
pages = "107--117",
journal = "Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene",
issn = "0035-9203",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "2",
}