TY - JOUR
T1 - Vascular disease, ESRD, and death
T2 - Interpreting competing risk analyses
AU - Grams, Morgan E.
AU - Coresh, Josef
AU - Segev, Dorry L.
AU - Kucirka, Lauren M.
AU - Tighiouart, Hocine
AU - Sarnak, Mark J.
PY - 2012/10/5
Y1 - 2012/10/5
N2 - Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor formortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in theModification ofDiet in RenalDisease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular diseasewith ESRD and pre-ESRDmortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methodswere similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95%confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.
AB - Background and objectives Vascular disease, a common condition in CKD, is a risk factor formortality and ESRD. Optimal patient care requires accurate estimation and ordering of these competing risks. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This is a prospective cohort study of screened (n=885) and randomized participants (n=837) in theModification ofDiet in RenalDisease study (original study enrollment, 1989-1992), evaluating the association of vascular diseasewith ESRD and pre-ESRDmortality using standard survival analysis and competing risk regression. Results The method of analysis resulted in markedly different estimates. Cumulative incidence by standard analysis (censoring at the competing event) implied that, with vascular disease, the 15-year incidence was 66% and 51% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. A more accurate representation of absolute risk was estimated with competing risk regression: 15-year incidence was 54% and 29% for ESRD and pre-ESRD death, respectively. For the association of vascular disease with pre-ESRD death, estimates of relative risk by the two methodswere similar (standard survival analysis adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95%confidence interval, 1.20-2.20; competing risk regression adjusted subhazard ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.14). In contrast, the hazard and subhazard ratios differed substantially for other associations, such as GFR and pre-ESRD mortality. Conclusions When competing events exist, absolute risk is better estimated using competing risk regression, but etiologic associations by this method must be carefully interpreted. The presence of vascular disease in CKD decreases the likelihood of survival to ESRD, independent of age and other risk factors.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84867240319&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84867240319&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.2215/CJN.03460412
DO - 10.2215/CJN.03460412
M3 - Article
C2 - 22859747
AN - SCOPUS:84867240319
SN - 1555-9041
VL - 7
SP - 1606
EP - 1614
JO - Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology
JF - Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology
IS - 10
ER -