Using spatio-temporal modeling to predict long-term exposure to black smoke at fine spatial and temporal scale

Payam Dadvand, Stephen Rushton, Peter J. Diggle, Louis Goffe, Judith Rankin, Tanja Pless-Mulloli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Whilst exposure to air pollution is linked to a wide range of adverse health outcomes, assessing levels of this exposure has remained a challenge. This study reports a modeling approach for the estimation of weekly levels of ambient black smoke (BS) at residential postcodes across Northeast England (2055km2) over a 12 year period (1985-1996). A two-stage modeling strategy was developed using monitoring data on BS together with a range of covariates including data on traffic, population density, industrial activity, land cover (remote sensing), and meteorology. The first stage separates the temporal trend in BS for the region as a whole from within-region spatial variation and the second stage is a linear model which predicts BS levels at all locations in the region using spatially referenced covariate data as predictors and the regional predicted temporal trend as an offset. Traffic and land cover predictors were included in the final model, which predicted 70% of the spatio-temporal variation in BS across the study region over the study period. This modeling approach appears to provide a robust way of estimating exposure to BS at an inter-urban scale.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)659-664
Number of pages6
JournalAtmospheric Environment
Volume45
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 2011

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smoke
modeling
land cover
meteorology
exposure
population density
temporal variation
atmospheric pollution
spatial variation
remote sensing
traffic
trend

Keywords

  • Air pollution
  • Black smoke
  • Exposure assessment
  • Exposure modeling
  • Geographical information system
  • GIS
  • Spatiotemporal modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Environmental Science(all)

Cite this

Using spatio-temporal modeling to predict long-term exposure to black smoke at fine spatial and temporal scale. / Dadvand, Payam; Rushton, Stephen; Diggle, Peter J.; Goffe, Louis; Rankin, Judith; Pless-Mulloli, Tanja.

In: Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 45, No. 3, 01.2011, p. 659-664.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Dadvand, Payam ; Rushton, Stephen ; Diggle, Peter J. ; Goffe, Louis ; Rankin, Judith ; Pless-Mulloli, Tanja. / Using spatio-temporal modeling to predict long-term exposure to black smoke at fine spatial and temporal scale. In: Atmospheric Environment. 2011 ; Vol. 45, No. 3. pp. 659-664.
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