Using geographic information system-based ecologic niche models to forecast the risk of hantavirus infection in Shandong Province, China

Lan Wei, Quan Qian, Zhi Qiang Wang, Gregory E. Glass, Shao Xia Song, Wen Yi Zhang, Xiu Jun Li, Hong Yang, Xian Jun Wang, Li Qun Fang, Wu Chun Cao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important public health problem in Shandong Province, China. In this study, we combined ecologic niche modeling with geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to identify the risk factors and affected areas of hantavirus infections in rodent hosts. Land cover and elevation were found to be closely associated with the presence of hantavirus-infected rodent hosts. The averaged area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864, implying good performance. The predicted risk maps based on the model were validated both by the hantavirus-infected rodents' distribution and HFRS human case localities with a good fit. These findings have the applications for targeting control and prevention efforts.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)497-503
Number of pages7
JournalAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Volume84
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2011

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Parasitology
  • Virology
  • Infectious Diseases

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