TY - JOUR
T1 - Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait
T2 - what can be done now?
AU - Al-Zoughool, Mustafa
AU - Oraby, Tamer
AU - Vainio, Harri
AU - Gasana, Janvier
AU - Longenecker, Joseph
AU - Al Ali, Walid
AU - AlSeaidan, Mohammad
AU - Elsaadany, Susie
AU - Tyshenko, Michael G.
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported by Kuwait Institute for Advancement of Science (KFAS)- grant number CORONA-46.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Background: Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. Methods: The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. Results: The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations. Conclusions: In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.
AB - Background: Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. Methods: The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. Results: The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations. Conclusions: In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.
KW - Actual incidence
KW - COVID-19
KW - Hospitalization
KW - Kuwait
KW - Lockdown duration
KW - Lockdown timing
KW - Stochastic model
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U2 - 10.1186/s13690-021-00778-y
DO - 10.1186/s13690-021-00778-y
M3 - Article
C2 - 34998438
AN - SCOPUS:85122738484
SN - 0778-7367
VL - 80
JO - Archives of Public Health
JF - Archives of Public Health
IS - 1
M1 - 22
ER -