TY - JOUR
T1 - US commercial air tour crashes, 2000-2011
T2 - Burden, fatal risk factors, and FIA Score validation
AU - Ballard, Sarah Blythe
AU - Beaty, Leland P.
AU - Baker, Susan P.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors thank Carol Floyd for support in data acquisition and Dr. Mary Kay Smith-Fawzi for critical review of the manuscript's biostatistical content. This research was supported in part by Grant #5R49CE001507 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the Johns Hopkins Center for Injury Research and Policy. During part of the research period, Sarah-Blythe Ballard was a Fogarty Global Health Fellow supported by Grant #R25 TW009340 from the National Institutes of Health to the UJMT Coordinating Center.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - Introduction This study provides new public health data concerning the US commercial air tour industry. Risk factors for fatality in air tour crashes were analyzed to determine the value of the FIA Score in predicting fatal outcomes. Methods Using the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and National Transportation Safety Board data, the incidence of commercial air tour crashes from 2000 through 2010 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes occurring from 2000 through 2011 were analyzed using regression methods. The FIA Score, Li and Baker's fatality risk index, was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The industry-wide commercial air tour crash rate was 2.7 per 100,000 flight hours. The incidence rates of Part 91 and 135 commercial air tour crashes were 3.4 and 2.3 per 100,000 flight hours, respectively (relative risk [RR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-2.1, P = 0.015). Of the 152 air tour crashes that occurred from 2000 through 2011, 30 (20%) involved at least one fatality and, on average, 3.5 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with three major risk factors: fire (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.1, 95% CI 1.5-16.7, P = 0.008), instrument meteorological conditions (AOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.1-26.4, P = 0.038), and off-airport location (AOR 7.2, 95% CI 1.6-33.2, P = 0.011). The area under the FIA Score's ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.88). Discussion Commercial air tour crash rates were high relative to similar commercial aviation operations. Disparities between Part 91 and 135 air tour crash rates reflect regulatory disparities that require FAA action. The FIA Score appeared to be a valid measurement of fatal risk in air tour crashes. The FIA should prioritize interventions that address the three major risk factors identified by this study.
AB - Introduction This study provides new public health data concerning the US commercial air tour industry. Risk factors for fatality in air tour crashes were analyzed to determine the value of the FIA Score in predicting fatal outcomes. Methods Using the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and National Transportation Safety Board data, the incidence of commercial air tour crashes from 2000 through 2010 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes occurring from 2000 through 2011 were analyzed using regression methods. The FIA Score, Li and Baker's fatality risk index, was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The industry-wide commercial air tour crash rate was 2.7 per 100,000 flight hours. The incidence rates of Part 91 and 135 commercial air tour crashes were 3.4 and 2.3 per 100,000 flight hours, respectively (relative risk [RR] 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-2.1, P = 0.015). Of the 152 air tour crashes that occurred from 2000 through 2011, 30 (20%) involved at least one fatality and, on average, 3.5 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with three major risk factors: fire (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 5.1, 95% CI 1.5-16.7, P = 0.008), instrument meteorological conditions (AOR 5.4, 95% CI 1.1-26.4, P = 0.038), and off-airport location (AOR 7.2, 95% CI 1.6-33.2, P = 0.011). The area under the FIA Score's ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.88). Discussion Commercial air tour crash rates were high relative to similar commercial aviation operations. Disparities between Part 91 and 135 air tour crash rates reflect regulatory disparities that require FAA action. The FIA Score appeared to be a valid measurement of fatal risk in air tour crashes. The FIA should prioritize interventions that address the three major risk factors identified by this study.
KW - Air tours
KW - Commercial air tours
KW - FIA
KW - FIA Score
KW - Sightseeing
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U2 - 10.1016/j.aap.2013.03.028
DO - 10.1016/j.aap.2013.03.028
M3 - Article
C2 - 23631935
AN - SCOPUS:84876895386
SN - 0001-4575
VL - 57
SP - 49
EP - 54
JO - Accident Analysis and Prevention
JF - Accident Analysis and Prevention
ER -