TY - JOUR
T1 - Understanding the HIV Epidemic Among MSM in Baltimore
T2 - A Modeling Study Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions and Who Acquired and Contributed to Infections
AU - Silhol, Romain
AU - Boily, Marie Claude
AU - Dimitrov, Dobromir
AU - German, Danielle
AU - Flynn, Colin
AU - Farley, Jason E.
AU - Gelman, Marcy
AU - Hughes, James P.
AU - Donnell, Deborah
AU - Adeyeye, Adeola
AU - Remien, Robert H.
AU - Beyrer, Chris
AU - Paz-Bailey, Gabriela
AU - Wejnert, Cyprian
AU - Mitchell, Kate M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/7/1
Y1 - 2020/7/1
N2 - Introduction:Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States are disproportionately affected by HIV. We estimated the impact of past interventions and contribution of different population groups to incident MSM HIV infections.Setting:Baltimore, US.Methods:We used a deterministic model, parameterized and calibrated to demographic and epidemic Baltimore MSM data, to estimate the fraction of HIV infections among MSM averted by condoms and antiretroviral therapy (ART) over 1984-2017 and the fraction of infections acquired and transmission contributed by MSM from different demographic groups and disease and care continuum stages over 10-year periods from 1988 to 2017, using population attributable fractions.Results:Condom use and ART averted 19% (95% uncertainty interval: 14%-25%) and 23% (15%-31%) of HIV infections that would have occurred since 1984 and 1996, respectively. Over 2008-2017, 46% (41%-52%) of incident infections were acquired by and 35% (27%-49%) of transmissions contributed by MSM aged 18-24 years (who constitute 27% of all MSM, 19% of HIV+ MSM). MSM with undiagnosed HIV infection, those with diagnosed infection but not in care, and those on ART contributed to 41% (31%-54%), 46% (25%-56%), and 14% (7%-28%) of transmissions, respectively.Conclusion:Condoms and ART have modestly impacted the HIV epidemic among Baltimore MSM to date. Interventions reaching MSM with diagnosed infection who are not in care should be implemented because the largest percentage of HIV transmissions among Baltimore MSM is attributed to this group.
AB - Introduction:Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States are disproportionately affected by HIV. We estimated the impact of past interventions and contribution of different population groups to incident MSM HIV infections.Setting:Baltimore, US.Methods:We used a deterministic model, parameterized and calibrated to demographic and epidemic Baltimore MSM data, to estimate the fraction of HIV infections among MSM averted by condoms and antiretroviral therapy (ART) over 1984-2017 and the fraction of infections acquired and transmission contributed by MSM from different demographic groups and disease and care continuum stages over 10-year periods from 1988 to 2017, using population attributable fractions.Results:Condom use and ART averted 19% (95% uncertainty interval: 14%-25%) and 23% (15%-31%) of HIV infections that would have occurred since 1984 and 1996, respectively. Over 2008-2017, 46% (41%-52%) of incident infections were acquired by and 35% (27%-49%) of transmissions contributed by MSM aged 18-24 years (who constitute 27% of all MSM, 19% of HIV+ MSM). MSM with undiagnosed HIV infection, those with diagnosed infection but not in care, and those on ART contributed to 41% (31%-54%), 46% (25%-56%), and 14% (7%-28%) of transmissions, respectively.Conclusion:Condoms and ART have modestly impacted the HIV epidemic among Baltimore MSM to date. Interventions reaching MSM with diagnosed infection who are not in care should be implemented because the largest percentage of HIV transmissions among Baltimore MSM is attributed to this group.
KW - HIV incidence
KW - HIV treatment cascade
KW - HIV/AIDS
KW - epidemic model
KW - mathematical model
KW - men who have sex with men
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U2 - 10.1097/QAI.0000000000002340
DO - 10.1097/QAI.0000000000002340
M3 - Article
C2 - 32141958
AN - SCOPUS:85086524002
SN - 1525-4135
VL - 84
SP - 253
EP - 262
JO - Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
JF - Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes
IS - 3
ER -