Three methods of estimating births averted nationally by contraception

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This paper compares the performance of three methods applicable to national-level demographic data of estimating births averted as a consequence of contraceptive practice. Two are based on the relationship between the general fertility rate (GFR) or total fertility (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence, while the third uses Bongaarts' proximate determinants (PD) model. Estimates of the number of births averted and the percentage by which the number would have increased in the absence of contraception are consistent between the GFR-based and TFR-based methods, but in general lower than the estimates generated by the PD-based method, except for a few high-contraceptive-prevalence countries. For 156 countries and areas around the world the estimated number of births that would have occurred in a recent year in the absence of contraception - the average of the estimates of the three methods - is approximately 230 million, which is more than the estimated 129 million births that actually occurred.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)191-210
Number of pages20
JournalPopulation Studies
Volume62
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 1 2008

Keywords

  • Births averted
  • Bongaarts' proximate determinants model
  • Contraceptive use
  • General fertility rate
  • National level
  • Total fertility

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Three methods of estimating births averted nationally by contraception'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this