TY - JOUR
T1 - The use of face masks during vaccine roll-out in New YorkCity and impact on epidemic control
AU - Raina MacIntyre, C.
AU - Costantino, Valentina
AU - Chanmugam, Arjun
N1 - Funding Information:
We would like to acknowledge Dr Joel Ackelsberg (Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York City), Dr Eddy Bresnitz (New Jersey Department of Public Health), for their critical review and suggestions on the work. Raina MacIntyre is supported by a NHMRC Principal Research Fellowship, grant number 1137582. This study is a modelling study which uses open access published data and does not contain any individual or identifying data. As such, no ethics approval was required.
Funding Information:
Raina MacIntyre is supported by a NHMRC Principal Research Fellowship, grant number 1137582 .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021
PY - 2021/10/8
Y1 - 2021/10/8
N2 - Face masks were mandated in New York during the first wave in 2020, and in 2021 the first vaccine programs have commenced. We aimed to examine the impact of face mask and other NPIs use with a gradual roll out of vaccines in NYC on the epidemic trajectory. A SEIR mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was developed for New York City (NYC), which accounted for decreased mobility for lockdown, testing and tracing. Varied mask's usage and efficacy were tested, along with a gradual increase in vaccine uptake over five months. The model has been calibrated using notification data in NYC from March first to June 29. Masks and other NPIs result in immediate impact on the epidemic, while vaccination has a delayed impact, especially when implemented over a long period of time. A pre-emptive, early mandate for masks is more effective than late mask use, but even late mask mandates will reduce cases and deaths by over 20%. The epidemic curve is suppressed by at least 50% of people wearing a mask from the start of the outbreak but surges when mask wearing drops to 30% or less. With a slow roll out of vaccines over five months at uptake levels of 20–70%, NPIs use will still be needed and has a greater impact on epidemic control. When vaccine roll out is slow or partial in cities experiencing local transmission of COVID-19, masks and other NPIs will be necessary to mitigate transmission until vaccine coverage is high and complete. Vaccine alone cannot rapidly control an epidemic because of the time lag to two-dose immunity. Even after high coverage, the ongoing need for NPIs is unknown and will depend on long-term duration of vaccine efficacy, the use of boosters and optimized dosage scheduling and variants of concern.
AB - Face masks were mandated in New York during the first wave in 2020, and in 2021 the first vaccine programs have commenced. We aimed to examine the impact of face mask and other NPIs use with a gradual roll out of vaccines in NYC on the epidemic trajectory. A SEIR mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was developed for New York City (NYC), which accounted for decreased mobility for lockdown, testing and tracing. Varied mask's usage and efficacy were tested, along with a gradual increase in vaccine uptake over five months. The model has been calibrated using notification data in NYC from March first to June 29. Masks and other NPIs result in immediate impact on the epidemic, while vaccination has a delayed impact, especially when implemented over a long period of time. A pre-emptive, early mandate for masks is more effective than late mask use, but even late mask mandates will reduce cases and deaths by over 20%. The epidemic curve is suppressed by at least 50% of people wearing a mask from the start of the outbreak but surges when mask wearing drops to 30% or less. With a slow roll out of vaccines over five months at uptake levels of 20–70%, NPIs use will still be needed and has a greater impact on epidemic control. When vaccine roll out is slow or partial in cities experiencing local transmission of COVID-19, masks and other NPIs will be necessary to mitigate transmission until vaccine coverage is high and complete. Vaccine alone cannot rapidly control an epidemic because of the time lag to two-dose immunity. Even after high coverage, the ongoing need for NPIs is unknown and will depend on long-term duration of vaccine efficacy, the use of boosters and optimized dosage scheduling and variants of concern.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.08.102
DO - 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.08.102
M3 - Article
C2 - 34538699
AN - SCOPUS:85115025462
SN - 0264-410X
VL - 39
SP - 6296
EP - 6301
JO - Vaccine
JF - Vaccine
IS - 42
ER -