The metabolic syndrome is not a sensible tool for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease

Mark Woodward, Hugh Tunstall-Pedoe

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: The metabolic syndrome (MS) is a popularly used risk marker for coronary heart disease (CHD), yet its utility is in doubt. Design: Cohort study based in Glasgow, Scotland, of 1471 men and women free of cardiovascular disease, followed up for a median of 13.7 years. Methods: MS was defined according to current criteria, requiring at least three of five dichotomous risk factors to be positive. Cox models were used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) and discrimination was quantified by areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) using 500 bootstrap samples. Results: The HR (95% confidence interval) for CHD, MS versus no MS was 2.23 (1.67-2.97). However, the HR rose monotonically when plotted against the number of positive components, with no suggestion of a threshold effect at three positive components. Furthermore, the HR also changed monotonically as each of the five continuous variables defining the different components increased, again with no obvious threshold effects. The AUC for MS was low, at 0.5764, this being significantly (P

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)210-214
Number of pages5
JournalEuropean Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation
Volume16
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2009
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Coronary Disease
Area Under Curve
Scotland
Proportional Hazards Models
ROC Curve
Cohort Studies
Cardiovascular Diseases
Confidence Intervals

Keywords

  • Coronary heart disease
  • Metabolic syndrome
  • MONICA
  • Risk prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
  • Epidemiology
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

The metabolic syndrome is not a sensible tool for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease. / Woodward, Mark; Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh.

In: European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation, Vol. 16, No. 2, 04.2009, p. 210-214.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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