The many projected futures of dengue

Jane P. Messina, Oliver J. Brady, David M. Pigott, Nick Golding, Moritz U G Kraemer, Thomas W. Scott, G. R William Wint, David L. Smith, Simon I. Hay

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)230-239
Number of pages10
JournalNature Reviews Microbiology
Volume13
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 16 2015
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Dengue
Disease Vectors
Public Health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Messina, J. P., Brady, O. J., Pigott, D. M., Golding, N., Kraemer, M. U. G., Scott, T. W., ... Hay, S. I. (2015). The many projected futures of dengue. Nature Reviews Microbiology, 13(4), 230-239. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3430

The many projected futures of dengue. / Messina, Jane P.; Brady, Oliver J.; Pigott, David M.; Golding, Nick; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Scott, Thomas W.; Wint, G. R William; Smith, David L.; Hay, Simon I.

In: Nature Reviews Microbiology, Vol. 13, No. 4, 16.03.2015, p. 230-239.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Messina, JP, Brady, OJ, Pigott, DM, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Scott, TW, Wint, GRW, Smith, DL & Hay, SI 2015, 'The many projected futures of dengue', Nature Reviews Microbiology, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 230-239. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3430
Messina JP, Brady OJ, Pigott DM, Golding N, Kraemer MUG, Scott TW et al. The many projected futures of dengue. Nature Reviews Microbiology. 2015 Mar 16;13(4):230-239. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro3430
Messina, Jane P. ; Brady, Oliver J. ; Pigott, David M. ; Golding, Nick ; Kraemer, Moritz U G ; Scott, Thomas W. ; Wint, G. R William ; Smith, David L. ; Hay, Simon I. / The many projected futures of dengue. In: Nature Reviews Microbiology. 2015 ; Vol. 13, No. 4. pp. 230-239.
@article{b27497011d4e4b29be3d66a56f6915f2,
title = "The many projected futures of dengue",
abstract = "Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.",
author = "Messina, {Jane P.} and Brady, {Oliver J.} and Pigott, {David M.} and Nick Golding and Kraemer, {Moritz U G} and Scott, {Thomas W.} and Wint, {G. R William} and Smith, {David L.} and Hay, {Simon I.}",
year = "2015",
month = "3",
day = "16",
doi = "10.1038/nrmicro3430",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "13",
pages = "230--239",
journal = "Nature Reviews Microbiology",
issn = "1740-1526",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The many projected futures of dengue

AU - Messina, Jane P.

AU - Brady, Oliver J.

AU - Pigott, David M.

AU - Golding, Nick

AU - Kraemer, Moritz U G

AU - Scott, Thomas W.

AU - Wint, G. R William

AU - Smith, David L.

AU - Hay, Simon I.

PY - 2015/3/16

Y1 - 2015/3/16

N2 - Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.

AB - Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84925166393&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84925166393&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/nrmicro3430

DO - 10.1038/nrmicro3430

M3 - Article

C2 - 25730702

AN - SCOPUS:84925166393

VL - 13

SP - 230

EP - 239

JO - Nature Reviews Microbiology

JF - Nature Reviews Microbiology

SN - 1740-1526

IS - 4

ER -