The many projected futures of dengue

Jane P. Messina, Oliver J. Brady, David M. Pigott, Nick Golding, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Thomas W. Scott, G. R.William Wint, David L. Smith, Simon I. Hay

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

95 Scopus citations


Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)230-239
Number of pages10
JournalNature Reviews Microbiology
Issue number4
StatePublished - Mar 16 2015

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Microbiology
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Infectious Diseases


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