@article{b27497011d4e4b29be3d66a56f6915f2,
title = "The many projected futures of dengue",
abstract = "Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.",
author = "Messina, {Jane P.} and Brady, {Oliver J.} and Pigott, {David M.} and Nick Golding and Kraemer, {Moritz U.G.} and Scott, {Thomas W.} and Wint, {G. R.William} and Smith, {David L.} and Hay, {Simon I.}",
note = "Funding Information: J.P.M., G.R.W.W., T.W.S. and S.I.H. receive funding from, and O.J.B. acknowledges the support of, the International Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment Management and Surveillance (IDAMS; European Commission 7th Framework Programme (21803)). O.J.B. is funded by a Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) studentship. D.M.P. is funded by a Sir Richard Southwood Graduate Scholarship from the Department of Zoology at the University of Oxford, UK. N.G. is funded by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1053338). M.U.G.K. is funded by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) through a graduate scholarship. T.W.S. acknowledges funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP52250), the Innovative Vector Control Consortium and the US National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01-AI069341, R01-AI091980, R01-GM08322 and P01-AI098670). S.I.H. is funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (095066). T.W.S., D.L.S. and S.I.H. also acknowledge funding support from the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Program of the Science and Technology Directorate, the US Department of Homeland Security and the Fogarty International Center, NIH. Funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. All authors contributed to the writing of the paper. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited.",
year = "2015",
month = mar,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1038/nrmicro3430",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "13",
pages = "230--239",
journal = "Nature Reviews Microbiology",
issn = "1740-1526",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "4",
}