Abstract
Background: In 2008, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) re-emerged in Thailand aftermore than a decade of absence. Cases first appeared in the extreme southern region of the country and advanced northward approx. 300 kmover the next 18 months. The spatial advance of CHIKV cases appeared to occur at two rates, initially progressing slowly and then increasing in speed. We hypothesize that climatic variation affected the transmission of CHIKV in the country. Methods: To determine the effect of climate on CHIKV transmission, we evaluatedmodelswhere climate affects the transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans; extrinsic incubation period; fertility rate ofmosquitoes; and the mortality rate of mosquito larvae. We compared these models to models that did not include climate effects. Results: The inclusion of climate data greatly improvedmodel fit withmodels assuming climate affected the fertility rate of mosquitoes providing the best fit to data. Conclusion: These results suggest that climatic variation contributed to the slower rate of incidence observed inMarch 2009. Overall, a gradient in transmission probability and mortality and fertility rates of mosquito is observed over the entire area with the most southern districts experiencing the most efficient transmission.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Article number | trv114 |
| Pages (from-to) | 125-133 |
| Number of pages | 9 |
| Journal | Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene |
| Volume | 110 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 4 2016 |
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Keywords
- Chikungunya
- Emergence
- Spatial
- Thailand
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Parasitology
- Infectious Diseases
- Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Cite this
The impact of rainfall and temperature on the spatial progression of cases during the chikungunya re-emergence in Thailand in 2008-2009. / Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong; Cummings, Derek A T.
In: Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 110, No. 2, trv114, 04.01.2016, p. 125-133.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of rainfall and temperature on the spatial progression of cases during the chikungunya re-emergence in Thailand in 2008-2009
AU - Chadsuthi, Sudarat
AU - Iamsirithaworn, Sopon
AU - Triampo, Wannapong
AU - Cummings, Derek A T
PY - 2016/1/4
Y1 - 2016/1/4
N2 - Background: In 2008, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) re-emerged in Thailand aftermore than a decade of absence. Cases first appeared in the extreme southern region of the country and advanced northward approx. 300 kmover the next 18 months. The spatial advance of CHIKV cases appeared to occur at two rates, initially progressing slowly and then increasing in speed. We hypothesize that climatic variation affected the transmission of CHIKV in the country. Methods: To determine the effect of climate on CHIKV transmission, we evaluatedmodelswhere climate affects the transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans; extrinsic incubation period; fertility rate ofmosquitoes; and the mortality rate of mosquito larvae. We compared these models to models that did not include climate effects. Results: The inclusion of climate data greatly improvedmodel fit withmodels assuming climate affected the fertility rate of mosquitoes providing the best fit to data. Conclusion: These results suggest that climatic variation contributed to the slower rate of incidence observed inMarch 2009. Overall, a gradient in transmission probability and mortality and fertility rates of mosquito is observed over the entire area with the most southern districts experiencing the most efficient transmission.
AB - Background: In 2008, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) re-emerged in Thailand aftermore than a decade of absence. Cases first appeared in the extreme southern region of the country and advanced northward approx. 300 kmover the next 18 months. The spatial advance of CHIKV cases appeared to occur at two rates, initially progressing slowly and then increasing in speed. We hypothesize that climatic variation affected the transmission of CHIKV in the country. Methods: To determine the effect of climate on CHIKV transmission, we evaluatedmodelswhere climate affects the transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans; extrinsic incubation period; fertility rate ofmosquitoes; and the mortality rate of mosquito larvae. We compared these models to models that did not include climate effects. Results: The inclusion of climate data greatly improvedmodel fit withmodels assuming climate affected the fertility rate of mosquitoes providing the best fit to data. Conclusion: These results suggest that climatic variation contributed to the slower rate of incidence observed inMarch 2009. Overall, a gradient in transmission probability and mortality and fertility rates of mosquito is observed over the entire area with the most southern districts experiencing the most efficient transmission.
KW - Chikungunya
KW - Emergence
KW - Spatial
KW - Thailand
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84961620633&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84961620633&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/trstmh/trv114
DO - 10.1093/trstmh/trv114
M3 - Article
C2 - 26822605
AN - SCOPUS:84961620633
VL - 110
SP - 125
EP - 133
JO - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
JF - Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
SN - 0035-9203
IS - 2
M1 - trv114
ER -