TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of Covid-19 on older workers’ employment and Social Security spillovers
AU - Goda, Gopi Shah
AU - Jackson, Emilie
AU - Nicholas, Lauren Hersch
AU - Stith, Sarah See
N1 - Funding Information:
We would like to thank Rolando Hernandez Gomez and Sasmira Matta for outstanding research assistance, Nancy Early for assistance with SSA data, and seminar participants at the Social Security Administration, Federal Reserve Board, Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, RDRC annual meeting, Bocconi & CEPR Workshop on Social Security, SIEPR Working Longer conference, NTA annual meetings, SEA annual meetings, and the NBER Summer Institute for helpful comments. We also thank editor Alfonso Flores-Lagunes and three reviewers.
Funding Information:
The research reported herein was performed pursuant to grant RDR18000003 from the US Social Security Administration (SSA), funded as part of the Retirement and Disability Research Consortium. The opinions and conclusions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not represent the opinions or policy of SSA, any agency of the Federal Government, or NBER. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the contents of this report. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply endorsement, recommendation or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. Jackson gratefully acknowledges support from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation for a post-doctoral fellowship at NBER during which part of this research was conducted. Gopi Shah Goda currently works as a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). The CEA disclaims responsibility for any of the views expressed herein, and these views do not necessarily represent the views of the CEA or the USA.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
PY - 2023/4
Y1 - 2023/4
N2 - The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major threat to health and economic well-being in the USA, especially for older and disabled workers, and may spill over onto Social Security. We use individual-level from the Current Population Survey, state-level monthly Social Security administrative data on disability benefit applications, and national-level monthly data on Social Security retirement benefit applications to assess the impact of the pandemic on older adults’ employment and benefit claiming. State-level monthly Google Trends data are used as a leading indicator of future claiming in the population. We find that employment for older workers dropped substantially more than would have been predicted prior to the pandemic: employment for 50–61-year-olds was 5.7 pp (8.3 percent) lower, while employment for 62–70-year-olds was 3.9 pp (10.7 percent) lower. We find declines in labor force exit due to disability (4–5 percent), applications for disability insurance (15 percent), the average age of disability program applicants, and Google searches for disability (7 percent). We contrast with prior periods of economic downturn and explore potential mechanisms, finding evidence for both supply- and demand-side explanations.
AB - The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major threat to health and economic well-being in the USA, especially for older and disabled workers, and may spill over onto Social Security. We use individual-level from the Current Population Survey, state-level monthly Social Security administrative data on disability benefit applications, and national-level monthly data on Social Security retirement benefit applications to assess the impact of the pandemic on older adults’ employment and benefit claiming. State-level monthly Google Trends data are used as a leading indicator of future claiming in the population. We find that employment for older workers dropped substantially more than would have been predicted prior to the pandemic: employment for 50–61-year-olds was 5.7 pp (8.3 percent) lower, while employment for 62–70-year-olds was 3.9 pp (10.7 percent) lower. We find declines in labor force exit due to disability (4–5 percent), applications for disability insurance (15 percent), the average age of disability program applicants, and Google searches for disability (7 percent). We contrast with prior periods of economic downturn and explore potential mechanisms, finding evidence for both supply- and demand-side explanations.
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U2 - 10.1007/s00148-022-00915-z
DO - 10.1007/s00148-022-00915-z
M3 - Article
C2 - 35814291
AN - SCOPUS:85133324904
SN - 0933-1433
VL - 36
SP - 813
EP - 846
JO - Journal of Population Economics
JF - Journal of Population Economics
IS - 2
ER -