The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the gavi alliance

Lisa A. Lee, Lauren Franzel, Jessica Erin Atwell, S. Deblina Datta, Ingrid K. Friberg, Sue J. Goldie, Susan E. Reef, Nina Schwalbe, Emily Simons, Peter M. Strebel, Steven Sweet, Chutima Suraratdecha, Yin On Yvonne Tam, Emilia Vynnycky, Neff Walker, Damian G. Walker, Peter M. Hansen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Introduction: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. Methods: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. Results: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. Conclusion: Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalVaccine
Volume31
Issue numberSUPPL2
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 18 2013

Fingerprint

Vaccination
vaccination
death
vaccines
Mortality
Papillomaviridae
Serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis
Yellow fever virus
Yellow Fever
Neisseria meningitidis
Haemophilus influenzae
Southeastern Asia
Vaccines
Rubella
Rotavirus
hepatitis B
Measles
encephalitis
Hepatitis B
South East Asia

Keywords

  • Developing countries
  • Immunization
  • Impact
  • Mortality

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • veterinary(all)
  • Molecular Medicine

Cite this

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the gavi alliance. / Lee, Lisa A.; Franzel, Lauren; Atwell, Jessica Erin; Datta, S. Deblina; Friberg, Ingrid K.; Goldie, Sue J.; Reef, Susan E.; Schwalbe, Nina; Simons, Emily; Strebel, Peter M.; Sweet, Steven; Suraratdecha, Chutima; Tam, Yin On Yvonne; Vynnycky, Emilia; Walker, Neff; Walker, Damian G.; Hansen, Peter M.

In: Vaccine, Vol. 31, No. SUPPL2, 18.04.2013.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Lee, LA, Franzel, L, Atwell, JE, Datta, SD, Friberg, IK, Goldie, SJ, Reef, SE, Schwalbe, N, Simons, E, Strebel, PM, Sweet, S, Suraratdecha, C, Tam, YOY, Vynnycky, E, Walker, N, Walker, DG & Hansen, PM 2013, 'The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the gavi alliance', Vaccine, vol. 31, no. SUPPL2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.11.035
Lee, Lisa A. ; Franzel, Lauren ; Atwell, Jessica Erin ; Datta, S. Deblina ; Friberg, Ingrid K. ; Goldie, Sue J. ; Reef, Susan E. ; Schwalbe, Nina ; Simons, Emily ; Strebel, Peter M. ; Sweet, Steven ; Suraratdecha, Chutima ; Tam, Yin On Yvonne ; Vynnycky, Emilia ; Walker, Neff ; Walker, Damian G. ; Hansen, Peter M. / The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the gavi alliance. In: Vaccine. 2013 ; Vol. 31, No. SUPPL2.
@article{f85fb5eea2e24c488586c37d8cebe8dc,
title = "The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the gavi alliance",
abstract = "Introduction: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. Methods: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. Results: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. Conclusion: Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.",
keywords = "Developing countries, Immunization, Impact, Mortality",
author = "Lee, {Lisa A.} and Lauren Franzel and Atwell, {Jessica Erin} and Datta, {S. Deblina} and Friberg, {Ingrid K.} and Goldie, {Sue J.} and Reef, {Susan E.} and Nina Schwalbe and Emily Simons and Strebel, {Peter M.} and Steven Sweet and Chutima Suraratdecha and Tam, {Yin On Yvonne} and Emilia Vynnycky and Neff Walker and Walker, {Damian G.} and Hansen, {Peter M.}",
year = "2013",
month = "4",
day = "18",
doi = "10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.11.035",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "31",
journal = "Vaccine",
issn = "0264-410X",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",
number = "SUPPL2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the gavi alliance

AU - Lee, Lisa A.

AU - Franzel, Lauren

AU - Atwell, Jessica Erin

AU - Datta, S. Deblina

AU - Friberg, Ingrid K.

AU - Goldie, Sue J.

AU - Reef, Susan E.

AU - Schwalbe, Nina

AU - Simons, Emily

AU - Strebel, Peter M.

AU - Sweet, Steven

AU - Suraratdecha, Chutima

AU - Tam, Yin On Yvonne

AU - Vynnycky, Emilia

AU - Walker, Neff

AU - Walker, Damian G.

AU - Hansen, Peter M.

PY - 2013/4/18

Y1 - 2013/4/18

N2 - Introduction: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. Methods: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. Results: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. Conclusion: Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.

AB - Introduction: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. Methods: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. Results: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. Conclusion: Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.

KW - Developing countries

KW - Immunization

KW - Impact

KW - Mortality

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84876707923&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84876707923&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.11.035

DO - 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.11.035

M3 - Article

C2 - 23598494

AN - SCOPUS:84876707923

VL - 31

JO - Vaccine

JF - Vaccine

SN - 0264-410X

IS - SUPPL2

ER -