@article{6b71f5b369374b6992d4d2514f1359d9,
title = "The American Cancer Society 2035 challenge goal on cancer mortality reduction",
abstract = "A summary evaluation of the 2015 American Cancer Society (ACS) challenge goal showed that overall US mortality from all cancers combined declined 26% over the period from 1990 to 2015. Recent research suggests that US cancer mortality can still be lowered considerably by applying known interventions broadly and equitably. The ACS Board of Directors, therefore, commissioned ACS researchers to determine challenge goals for reductions in cancer mortality by 2035. A statistical model was used to estimate the average annual percent decline in overall cancer death rates among the US general population and among college-educated Americans during the most recent period. Then, the average annual percent decline in the overall cancer death rates of college graduates was applied to the death rates in the general population to project future rates in the United States beginning in 2020. If overall cancer death rates from 2020 through 2035 nationally decline at the pace of those of college graduates, then death rates in 2035 in the United States will drop by 38.3% from the 2015 level and by 54.4% from the 1990 level. On the basis of these results, the ACS 2035 challenge goal was set as a 40% reduction from the 2015 level. Achieving this goal could lead to approximately 1.3 million fewer cancer deaths than would have occurred from 2020 through 2035 and 122,500 fewer cancer deaths in 2035 alone. The results also show that reducing the prevalence of risk factors and achieving optimal adherence to evidence-based screening guidelines by 2025 could lead to a 33.5% reduction in the overall cancer death rate by 2035, attaining 85% of the challenge goal.",
keywords = "breast cancer, cancer, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, mortality, prostate cancer, risk factor",
author = "Jiemin Ma and Ahmedin Jemal and Fedewa, {Stacey A.} and Farhad Islami and Lichtenfeld, {J. Leonard} and Wender, {Richard C.} and Cullen, {Kevin J.} and Brawley, {Otis W.}",
note = "Funding Information: Over the years, public health organizations have conducted futuring activities and issued cancer challenge goals in attempts to motivate and guide cancer control activities. In 1981, Doll and Peto published a now classic article on the causes of cancer, stressing the influence of tobacco on cancer death rates, which they estimated to account for approximately 30% of cancer deaths in the United States. This led the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) in 1986 to call for an effort to halve the cancer death rate between 1985 and 2000. In 1996, the American Cancer Society (ACS) Board of Directors issued a challenge goal to halve what appeared to be possible peak cancer mortality in 1990 by 2015. In 2016, Byers et al published a summary evaluation of the ACS 2015 challenge goal. Overall US mortality from all cancers combined declined 26% over the period from 1990 to 2015. Mortality rates declined over the 25-year period for lung cancer (45% among men and 8% among women), colorectal cancer (47% among men and 44% among women), female breast cancer (39%), and prostate cancer (53%). Declines for all other cancers were 13% among men and 17% among women. These declines are thought to reflect a reduction in tobacco use and improvements in early detection and treatments. Over the past decades, however, ACS scientists and researchers from other agencies have reported substantial disparities in progress against cancer among populations defined by race/ethnicity, region of residence, and socioeconomic status (SES). These findings suggest that not all segments of the US population have benefitted equally from advances in cancer prevention, early detection, and treatments and that the US cancer mortality can be lowered considerably by applying known interventions equitably and broadly. In light of the above findings, the ACS Board of Directors commissioned researchers from the ACS Intramural Research Department to make cancer mortality projections for the United States to the year 2035 and determine challenge goals. The questions to be addressed were: What will cancer death rates look like in 2035 if current trends continue? What can cancer death rates look like in 2035 by accelerating progress in reducing cancer mortality (a challenge goal)? What is a pathway toward attaining the 2035 challenge goal? It is hoped that a glimpse at what is possible in terms of cancer prevention and control, as outlined in this article and in the other ACS cancer control blueprint articles, will motivate Americans and American institutions to intensify cancer prevention and control efforts. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 American Cancer Society",
year = "2019",
month = sep,
day = "1",
doi = "10.3322/caac.21564",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "69",
pages = "351--362",
journal = "CA Cancer Journal for Clinicians",
issn = "0007-9235",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "5",
}