TY - JOUR
T1 - Ten-year survival in patients with metastatic prostate cancer
AU - Tangen, Catherine M.
AU - Faulkner, James R.
AU - Crawford, E. David
AU - Thompson, Ian M.
AU - Hirano, Daisaku
AU - Eisenberger, Mario
AU - Hussain, Maha
N1 - Funding Information:
Supported in part by Public Health Service Cooperative Agreement grants from the National Cancer Institute (grants CA38926, CA32102, CA42777, CA46113, CA13612, CA04920, CA20319, CA42028, CA22433, CA37981, CA46441, CA32834, CA35192, CA16385, CA35431, CA58861, CA35281, CA04919, CA27057, CA58882, CA46136, CA28862, CA12213, CA45807, CA46282,
PY - 2003/6
Y1 - 2003/6
N2 - The objective of this analysis is to identify baseline covariates that predict which patients will be long-term survivors with metastatic prostate cancer. We analyzed data from Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) S8894, a clinical trial in men with newly diagnosed metastatic prostate cancer, to evaluate pretreatment characteristics associated with 10-year survival. There were 1286 eligible patients randomized to this study. Of these, 794 have been followed for ≥ 10.5 years and are included in the analyses. Proportional odds models were used to predict 3 survival categories (survival for < 5 years, 5 up to 10 years, and ≥ 10 years). Baseline patient and disease characteristics investigated were protocol treatment (flutamide vs. placebo), severity of disease, SWOG performance status (PS), bone pain, Gleason score, race, age, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at study entry. Of the 794 evaluable patients, 77% lived < 5 years, 16% lived 5 up to 10 years, and 7% lived ≥ 10 years. Factors predicting a statistical significant association with longer survival (P < 0.05) included minimal disease, better PS, no bone pain, lower Gleason score, and lower PSA level. All but PS were also significant in multivariate analyses. However, only 13% of patients (5 of 38) who lived ≥ 10 years were correctly predicted in their survival category based on the model, whereas 98% (405 of 414) who died within the first 5 years were correctly predicted. Although statistically significant baseline characteristics were identified in this clinical trial, they did not accurately predict the survival interval to which a patient belonged.
AB - The objective of this analysis is to identify baseline covariates that predict which patients will be long-term survivors with metastatic prostate cancer. We analyzed data from Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) S8894, a clinical trial in men with newly diagnosed metastatic prostate cancer, to evaluate pretreatment characteristics associated with 10-year survival. There were 1286 eligible patients randomized to this study. Of these, 794 have been followed for ≥ 10.5 years and are included in the analyses. Proportional odds models were used to predict 3 survival categories (survival for < 5 years, 5 up to 10 years, and ≥ 10 years). Baseline patient and disease characteristics investigated were protocol treatment (flutamide vs. placebo), severity of disease, SWOG performance status (PS), bone pain, Gleason score, race, age, and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at study entry. Of the 794 evaluable patients, 77% lived < 5 years, 16% lived 5 up to 10 years, and 7% lived ≥ 10 years. Factors predicting a statistical significant association with longer survival (P < 0.05) included minimal disease, better PS, no bone pain, lower Gleason score, and lower PSA level. All but PS were also significant in multivariate analyses. However, only 13% of patients (5 of 38) who lived ≥ 10 years were correctly predicted in their survival category based on the model, whereas 98% (405 of 414) who died within the first 5 years were correctly predicted. Although statistically significant baseline characteristics were identified in this clinical trial, they did not accurately predict the survival interval to which a patient belonged.
KW - Flutamide
KW - Gleason score
KW - Long-term survival
KW - Multivariable analysis
KW - Orchiectomy
KW - Prediction
KW - Prognosis
KW - Prostate-specific antigen
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0041977276&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0041977276&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3816/CGC.2003.n.011
DO - 10.3816/CGC.2003.n.011
M3 - Article
C2 - 15046683
AN - SCOPUS:0041977276
SN - 1540-0352
VL - 2
SP - 41
EP - 45
JO - Clinical Prostate Cancer
JF - Clinical Prostate Cancer
IS - 1
ER -