TY - JOUR
T1 - Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa
AU - Pandey, Abhishek
AU - Atkins, Katherine E.
AU - Medlock, Jan
AU - Wenzel, Natasha
AU - Townsend, Jeffrey P.
AU - Childs, James E.
AU - Nyenswah, Tolbert G.
AU - Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.
AU - Galvani, Alison P.
PY - 2014/11/21
Y1 - 2014/11/21
N2 - The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond.To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia.We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.
AB - The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond.To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia.We find that a combined approach of case isolation, contact-tracing with quarantine, and sanitary funeral practices must be implemented with utmost urgency in order to reverse the growth of the outbreak. As of 19 September, under status quo, our model predicts that the epidemic will continue to spread, generating a predicted 224 (134 to 358) daily cases by 1 December, 280 (184 to 441) by 15 December, and 348 (249 to 545) by 30 December.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84911891126&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84911891126&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1126/science.1260612
DO - 10.1126/science.1260612
M3 - Article
C2 - 25414312
AN - SCOPUS:84911891126
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 346
SP - 991
EP - 995
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 6212
ER -