Spatiotemporal Transmission Dynamics of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China, 2005–2012

Wen Yi Zhang, Li Ya Wang, Yun Xi Liu, Wen Wu Yin, Wen Biao Hu, Ricardo J.Soares Magalhaes, Fan Ding, Hai Long Sun, Hang Zhou, Shen Long Li, Ubydul Haque, Shi Lu Tong, Gregory E. Glass, Peng Bi, Archie C.A. Clements, Qi Yong Liu, Cheng Yi Li

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures.

Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences.

A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalPLoS neglected tropical diseases
Volume8
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Infectious Diseases

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    Zhang, W. Y., Wang, L. Y., Liu, Y. X., Yin, W. W., Hu, W. B., Magalhaes, R. J. S., Ding, F., Sun, H. L., Zhou, H., Li, S. L., Haque, U., Tong, S. L., Glass, G. E., Bi, P., Clements, A. C. A., Liu, Q. Y., & Li, C. Y. (2014). Spatiotemporal Transmission Dynamics of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in China, 2005–2012. PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 8(11). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003344