Spatial heterogeneity, host movement and mosquito-borne disease transmission

Miguel A. Acevedo, Olivia Prosper, Kenneth Lopiano, Nick Ruktanonchai, T. Trevor Caughlin, Maia Martcheva, Craig W. Osenberg, David L. Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases are a global health priority disproportionately affecting low-income populations in tropical and sub-tropical countries. These pathogens live in mosquitoes and hosts that interact in spatially heterogeneous environments where hosts move between regions of varying transmission intensity. Although there is increasing interest in the implications of spatial processes for mosquito-borne disease dynamics, most of our understanding derives from models that assume spatially homogeneous transmission. Spatial variation in contact rates can influence transmission and the risk of epidemics, yet the interaction between spatial heterogeneity and movement of hosts remains relatively unexplored. Here we explore, analytically and through numerical simulations, how human mobility connects spatially heterogeneous mosquito populations, thereby influencing disease persistence (determined by the basic reproduction number R0), prevalence and their relationship. We show that, when local transmission rates are highly heterogeneous, R0 declines asymptotically as human mobility increases, but infection prevalence peaks at low to intermediate rates of movement and decreases asymptotically after this peak. Movement can reduce heterogeneity in exposure to mosquito biting. As a result, if biting intensity is high but uneven, infection prevalence increases with mobility despite reductions in R0. This increase in prevalence decreases with further increase in mobility because individuals do not spend enough time in high transmission patches, hence decreasing the number of new infections and overall prevalence. These results provide a better basis for understanding the interplay between spatial transmission heterogeneity and human mobility, and their combined influence on prevalence and R0.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere0127552
JournalPLoS One
Volume10
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2015

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mosquito-borne diseases
disease transmission
Culicidae
Basic Reproduction Number
Infection
infection
Health Priorities
Pathogens
Poverty
spatial variation
Health
pathogens
Computer simulation
Population

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Acevedo, M. A., Prosper, O., Lopiano, K., Ruktanonchai, N., Caughlin, T. T., Martcheva, M., ... Smith, D. L. (2015). Spatial heterogeneity, host movement and mosquito-borne disease transmission. PLoS One, 10(6), [e0127552]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127552

Spatial heterogeneity, host movement and mosquito-borne disease transmission. / Acevedo, Miguel A.; Prosper, Olivia; Lopiano, Kenneth; Ruktanonchai, Nick; Caughlin, T. Trevor; Martcheva, Maia; Osenberg, Craig W.; Smith, David L.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 10, No. 6, e0127552, 01.06.2015.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Acevedo, MA, Prosper, O, Lopiano, K, Ruktanonchai, N, Caughlin, TT, Martcheva, M, Osenberg, CW & Smith, DL 2015, 'Spatial heterogeneity, host movement and mosquito-borne disease transmission', PLoS One, vol. 10, no. 6, e0127552. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127552
Acevedo MA, Prosper O, Lopiano K, Ruktanonchai N, Caughlin TT, Martcheva M et al. Spatial heterogeneity, host movement and mosquito-borne disease transmission. PLoS One. 2015 Jun 1;10(6). e0127552. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127552
Acevedo, Miguel A. ; Prosper, Olivia ; Lopiano, Kenneth ; Ruktanonchai, Nick ; Caughlin, T. Trevor ; Martcheva, Maia ; Osenberg, Craig W. ; Smith, David L. / Spatial heterogeneity, host movement and mosquito-borne disease transmission. In: PLoS One. 2015 ; Vol. 10, No. 6.
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