Spatial and population drivers of persistent cholera transmission in rural Bangladesh

Implications for vaccine and intervention targeting

Nushrat Nazia, Mohammad Ali, Md Jakariya, Quamrun Nahar, Mohammad Yunus, Michael Emch

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

We identify high risk clusters and measure their persistence in time and analyze spatial and population drivers of small area incidence over time. The geographically linked population and cholera surveillance data in Matlab, Bangladesh for a 10-year period were used. Individual level data were aggregated by local 250 × 250 m communities. A retrospective space-time scan statistic was applied to detect high risk clusters. Generalized estimating equations were used to identify risk factors for cholera. We identified 10 high risk clusters, the largest of which was in the southern part of the study area where a smaller river flows into a large river. There is persistence of local spatial patterns of cholera and the patterns are related to both the population composition and ongoing spatial diffusion from nearby areas over time. This information suggests that targeting interventions to high risk areas would help eliminate locally persistent endemic areas.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1339-1351
Number of pages13
JournalSpatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Volume24
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2018

Fingerprint

cholera
Bangladesh
Cholera
vaccine
targeting
Vaccines
driver
Rivers
Population
Small-Area Analysis
persistence
Population Surveillance
Spatial Analysis
river
risk factor
river flow
surveillance
incidence
statistics
Incidence

Keywords

  • Cholera
  • Endemic area
  • Matlab
  • Spatiotemporal cluster
  • Vaccine

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

Cite this

Spatial and population drivers of persistent cholera transmission in rural Bangladesh : Implications for vaccine and intervention targeting. / Nazia, Nushrat; Ali, Mohammad; Jakariya, Md; Nahar, Quamrun; Yunus, Mohammad; Emch, Michael.

In: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, Vol. 24, 01.02.2018, p. 1339-1351.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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