Snapshot estimators of recent HIV incidence rates

Edward H. Kaplan, Ron Brookmeyer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The recent HIV incidence rate (or hazard rate for infection) is an important quantity for use in monitoring the HIV/AIDS epidemic, evaluating HIV prevention programs, and allocating HIV prevention resources. Direct measurement of HIV incidence is difficult and time consuming, while estimating HIV incidence via backcalculation (deconvolution) using AIDS incidence data and the (presumed known) HIV incubation time distribution yields little information about recent infection. We propose a method for estimating recent HIV incidence in a population via a single sample at a single point in time. The method relies on understanding the progression of certain markers such as CD4 counts following infection. The actual formulas derived for the point and interval estimates of HIV incidence are simple and easy to use while the sample sizes needed to implement our approach are reasonable. We present two applications of our approach, comparing our results to those obtained from more conventional methods where possible.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)29-37
Number of pages9
JournalOperations Research
Volume47
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jan 1999

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Deconvolution
Hazards
Monitoring
Estimator
Infection

Keywords

  • Epidemiology
  • Health care
  • Probability, applications
  • Statistics, applications

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Management Science and Operations Research

Cite this

Kaplan, E. H., & Brookmeyer, R. (1999). Snapshot estimators of recent HIV incidence rates. Operations Research, 47(1), 29-37.

Snapshot estimators of recent HIV incidence rates. / Kaplan, Edward H.; Brookmeyer, Ron.

In: Operations Research, Vol. 47, No. 1, 01.1999, p. 29-37.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Kaplan, EH & Brookmeyer, R 1999, 'Snapshot estimators of recent HIV incidence rates', Operations Research, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 29-37.
Kaplan EH, Brookmeyer R. Snapshot estimators of recent HIV incidence rates. Operations Research. 1999 Jan;47(1):29-37.
Kaplan, Edward H. ; Brookmeyer, Ron. / Snapshot estimators of recent HIV incidence rates. In: Operations Research. 1999 ; Vol. 47, No. 1. pp. 29-37.
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