Simple strategies or simple tasks? Dynamic decision making in 'complex' worlds

Alex Kirlik, Ling Rothrock, Neff Walker, Arthur D. Fisk

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Decision makers in operational environments perform in a world of dynamism, time pressure, and uncertainty. Perhaps the most stable empirical finding to emerge from naturalistic studies in these domains is that, despite apparent task complexity, performers only rarely report the use of complex, enumerative decision strategies. If we accept that decision making in these domains is often effective, we are presented with a dilemma: either decision strategies are (covertly) more complex than these performers claim, or these tasks are (subtly) more simple than they might appear. We present a set of empirical findings and modeling results which suggest the latter explanation: that the simplicity of decision making is not merely apparent but largely real, and that tasks of high apparent complexity may yet admit to rather simple types of decision strategies. We also discuss empirical evidence that sheds light on the error forms resulting from the tendency of performers to seek and employ heuristic solutions to dynamic, uncertain decision problems.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
PublisherHuman Factors and Ergonomics Society, Inc.
Pages184-188
Number of pages5
Volume1
StatePublished - 1996
Externally publishedYes
EventProceedings of the 1996 40th Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. Part 1 (of 2) - Philadelphia, PA, USA
Duration: Sep 2 1996Sep 6 1996

Other

OtherProceedings of the 1996 40th Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. Part 1 (of 2)
CityPhiladelphia, PA, USA
Period9/2/969/6/96

Fingerprint

Decision making
Uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

Cite this

Kirlik, A., Rothrock, L., Walker, N., & Fisk, A. D. (1996). Simple strategies or simple tasks? Dynamic decision making in 'complex' worlds. In Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (Vol. 1, pp. 184-188). Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Inc..

Simple strategies or simple tasks? Dynamic decision making in 'complex' worlds. / Kirlik, Alex; Rothrock, Ling; Walker, Neff; Fisk, Arthur D.

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. Vol. 1 Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Inc., 1996. p. 184-188.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Kirlik, A, Rothrock, L, Walker, N & Fisk, AD 1996, Simple strategies or simple tasks? Dynamic decision making in 'complex' worlds. in Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. vol. 1, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Inc., pp. 184-188, Proceedings of the 1996 40th Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. Part 1 (of 2), Philadelphia, PA, USA, 9/2/96.
Kirlik A, Rothrock L, Walker N, Fisk AD. Simple strategies or simple tasks? Dynamic decision making in 'complex' worlds. In Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. Vol. 1. Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Inc. 1996. p. 184-188
Kirlik, Alex ; Rothrock, Ling ; Walker, Neff ; Fisk, Arthur D. / Simple strategies or simple tasks? Dynamic decision making in 'complex' worlds. Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. Vol. 1 Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Inc., 1996. pp. 184-188
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