The three year actuarial progression rate to the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a cohort of men in San Francisco who were seropositive for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was 22%. An additional 26 (19%) developed AIDS related conditions. |32 Microglobulin concentration, packed cell volume, HIV p24 antigenaemia, and the proportion and number of T4 lymphocytes each independently predicted progression to AIDS. |32 Microglobulin was the most powerful predictor. The 111 subjects tested who were normal by all predictors (40%) had a three year progression rate of 7%, and the 68 subjects who were abnormal by two or more predictors (24%) had a progression rate of 57%. Two thirds of all men who progressed to AIDS were in the last group.
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