TY - JOUR
T1 - Seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES)
AU - Chen, Renjie
AU - Peng, Roger D.
AU - Meng, Xia
AU - Zhou, Zhijun
AU - Chen, Bingheng
AU - Kan, Haidong
PY - 2013/4/5
Y1 - 2013/4/5
N2 - Epidemiological findings concerning the seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate matter (PM) are inconsistent. We investigated the seasonality in the association between PM with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10μm (PM10) and daily mortality in 17 Chinese cities. We fitted the "main" time-series model after adjustment for time-varying confounders using smooth functions with natural splines. We established a "seasonal" model to obtain the season-specific effect estimates of PM10, and a "harmonic" model to show the seasonal pattern that allows PM10 effects to vary smoothly with the day in a year. At the national level, a 10μg/m3 increase in the two-day moving average concentrations (lag 01) of PM10 was associated with 0.45% [95% posterior interval (PI), 0.15% to 0.76%], 0.17% (95% PI, -0.09% to 0.43%), 0.55% (95% PI, 0.15% to 0.96%) and 0.25% (95%PI, -0.05% to 0.56%) increases in total mortality for winter, spring, summer and fall, respectively. For the smoothly-varying plots of seasonality, we identified a two-peak pattern in winter and summer. The observed seasonal pattern was generally insensitive to model specifications. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary by seasons with the largest effect in winter and summer in China. To our knowledge, this is the first multicity study in developing countries to analyze the seasonal variations of PM-related health effects.
AB - Epidemiological findings concerning the seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate matter (PM) are inconsistent. We investigated the seasonality in the association between PM with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10μm (PM10) and daily mortality in 17 Chinese cities. We fitted the "main" time-series model after adjustment for time-varying confounders using smooth functions with natural splines. We established a "seasonal" model to obtain the season-specific effect estimates of PM10, and a "harmonic" model to show the seasonal pattern that allows PM10 effects to vary smoothly with the day in a year. At the national level, a 10μg/m3 increase in the two-day moving average concentrations (lag 01) of PM10 was associated with 0.45% [95% posterior interval (PI), 0.15% to 0.76%], 0.17% (95% PI, -0.09% to 0.43%), 0.55% (95% PI, 0.15% to 0.96%) and 0.25% (95%PI, -0.05% to 0.56%) increases in total mortality for winter, spring, summer and fall, respectively. For the smoothly-varying plots of seasonality, we identified a two-peak pattern in winter and summer. The observed seasonal pattern was generally insensitive to model specifications. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary by seasons with the largest effect in winter and summer in China. To our knowledge, this is the first multicity study in developing countries to analyze the seasonal variations of PM-related health effects.
KW - Air pollution
KW - Mortality
KW - Particulate matter
KW - Seasonality
KW - Time series
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U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.040
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.040
M3 - Article
C2 - 23500824
AN - SCOPUS:84875237890
VL - 450-451
SP - 259
EP - 265
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
SN - 0048-9697
ER -