Screening for the early detection of cancer- II. The impact of screening on the natural history of the disease

Arthur Albert, Paul M. Gertman, Thomas Louis, Shu ing Liu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

In this report we develop a model which describes the temporal evolution of the natural history of a chronic progressive disease such as cancer, in a population which is subjected to screening and "natural" demographic forces. Several new measures of merit are defined, in terms of which the salutory effects of screening can be ascertained quantitatively. A computer program has been written which permits exploitation of the model over a wide range of assumptions concerning the characteristics of the disease in question. We present results based upon a set of assumptions chosen to mimic the known epidemiologic characteristics of cervical cancer. We show that an intelligently designed screening program, which preferentially selects high-risk age strata for screening, convincingly outperforms a program which screens all ages over 30 annually.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)61-109
Number of pages49
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume40
Issue number1-2
DOIs
StatePublished - 1978
Externally publishedYes

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Early Detection of Cancer
Uterine Cervical Neoplasms
Screening
cancer
Cancer
Chronic Disease
Software
Demography
screening
neoplasms
history
Population
Neoplasms
uterine cervical neoplasms
temporal evolution
Exploitation
Computer program listings
demographic statistics
software
History

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cite this

Screening for the early detection of cancer- II. The impact of screening on the natural history of the disease. / Albert, Arthur; Gertman, Paul M.; Louis, Thomas; Liu, Shu ing.

In: Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 40, No. 1-2, 1978, p. 61-109.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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