In this report we develop a model which describes the temporal evolution of the natural history of a chronic progressive disease such as cancer, in a population which is subjected to screening and "natural" demographic forces. Several new measures of merit are defined, in terms of which the salutory effects of screening can be ascertained quantitatively. A computer program has been written which permits exploitation of the model over a wide range of assumptions concerning the characteristics of the disease in question. We present results based upon a set of assumptions chosen to mimic the known epidemiologic characteristics of cervical cancer. We show that an intelligently designed screening program, which preferentially selects high-risk age strata for screening, convincingly outperforms a program which screens all ages over 30 annually.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics and Probability
- Modeling and Simulation
- Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
- Immunology and Microbiology(all)
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
- Applied Mathematics