TY - JOUR
T1 - Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population
AU - Salje, Henrik
AU - Lessler, Justin
AU - Endy, Timothy P.
AU - Curriero, Frank C.
AU - Gibbons, Robert V.
AU - Nisalak, Ananda
AU - Nimmannitya, Suchitra
AU - Kalayanarooj, Siripen
AU - Jarman, Richard G.
AU - Thomas, Stephen J.
AU - Burke, Donald S.
AU - Cummings, Derek A.T.
PY - 2012/6/12
Y1 - 2012/6/12
N2 - It is well-known that the distribution of immunity in a population dictates the future incidence of infectious disease, but this process is generally understood at individual or macroscales. For example, herd immunity to multiple pathogens has been observed at national and city levels. However, the effects of population immunity have not previously been shown at scales smaller than the city (e.g., neighborhoods). In particular, no study has shownlong-termeffects of population immunity at scales consistent with the spatial scale of person-to-person transmission. Here, we use the location of dengue patients' homes in Bangkok with the serotype of the infecting pathogen to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of disease risk at small spatial scales over a 5-y period. We find evidence for localized transmission at distances of under 1 km. We also observe patterns of spatiotemporal dependence consistent with the expected impacts of homotypic immunity, heterotypic immunity, and immune enhancement of disease at these distances. Our observations indicate that immunological memory of dengue serotypes occurs at the neighborhood level in this large urban setting. These methods have broad applications to studying the spatiotemporal structure of disease risk where pathogen serotype or genetic information is known.
AB - It is well-known that the distribution of immunity in a population dictates the future incidence of infectious disease, but this process is generally understood at individual or macroscales. For example, herd immunity to multiple pathogens has been observed at national and city levels. However, the effects of population immunity have not previously been shown at scales smaller than the city (e.g., neighborhoods). In particular, no study has shownlong-termeffects of population immunity at scales consistent with the spatial scale of person-to-person transmission. Here, we use the location of dengue patients' homes in Bangkok with the serotype of the infecting pathogen to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of disease risk at small spatial scales over a 5-y period. We find evidence for localized transmission at distances of under 1 km. We also observe patterns of spatiotemporal dependence consistent with the expected impacts of homotypic immunity, heterotypic immunity, and immune enhancement of disease at these distances. Our observations indicate that immunological memory of dengue serotypes occurs at the neighborhood level in this large urban setting. These methods have broad applications to studying the spatiotemporal structure of disease risk where pathogen serotype or genetic information is known.
KW - Dengue hemorrhagic fever
KW - Dynamics
KW - Spatial statistics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84862168792&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84862168792&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1120621109
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1120621109
M3 - Article
C2 - 22645364
AN - SCOPUS:84862168792
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 109
SP - 9535
EP - 9538
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 24
ER -