Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population

Henrik Salje, Justin Lessler, Timothy P. Endy, Frank C. Curriero, Robert V. Gibbons, Ananda Nisalak, Suchitra Nimmannitya, Siripen Kalayanarooj, Richard G. Jarman, Stephen J. Thomas, Donald S. Burke, Derek A.T. Cummings

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

It is well-known that the distribution of immunity in a population dictates the future incidence of infectious disease, but this process is generally understood at individual or macroscales. For example, herd immunity to multiple pathogens has been observed at national and city levels. However, the effects of population immunity have not previously been shown at scales smaller than the city (e.g., neighborhoods). In particular, no study has shownlong-termeffects of population immunity at scales consistent with the spatial scale of person-to-person transmission. Here, we use the location of dengue patients' homes in Bangkok with the serotype of the infecting pathogen to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of disease risk at small spatial scales over a 5-y period. We find evidence for localized transmission at distances of under 1 km. We also observe patterns of spatiotemporal dependence consistent with the expected impacts of homotypic immunity, heterotypic immunity, and immune enhancement of disease at these distances. Our observations indicate that immunological memory of dengue serotypes occurs at the neighborhood level in this large urban setting. These methods have broad applications to studying the spatiotemporal structure of disease risk where pathogen serotype or genetic information is known.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)9535-9538
Number of pages4
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume109
Issue number24
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 12 2012

Keywords

  • Dengue hemorrhagic fever
  • Dynamics
  • Spatial statistics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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