Results of early virologic monitoring may facilitate differentiated care monitoring strategies for clients on Art, Rakai, Uganda

Victor Ssempijja, Larry W. Chang, Gertrude Nakigozi, Anthony Ndyanabo, Thomas C. Quinn, Frank Cobelens, Maria Wawer, Ronald Gray, David Serwadda, Steven J. Reynolds

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Background. Viral load (VL) monitoring is standard of care in HIV-infected persons initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART). We evaluated the predictive value of VL measurements at 6 and 12 months after initiation of firstline ART to estimate the future risk of virologic failure (VF). Methods. HIV-infected persons with VL measurements at 6 and 12 months post-ART initiation and at least 2 additional VL measurements thereafter were assessed for risk of future VF, defined per World Health Organization guidelines. VL at 6 or 12 months post-ART was categorized into <400, 400-1000, 1001-2000, and >2000 copies/mL. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare VF incidence associated with 6-month, 12-month, and a composite of 6- and 12-month VL prediction indicators. Results. Overall, 1863 HIV-infected adults had a 6- and 12-month VL measurement, and 1588 had at least 2 additional VLs thereafter for predicting future VF. The majority (67%) were female (median age: females 33 years and males 37 years). At 12 months post-ART, 90% had VL<400 copies/mL (cumulative incidence of VF at 1.5%), 3% had 400-1000 copies/mL (VF 12%), 2% had 1001-2000 copies/mL (VF 22%), and 5% had >2000 copies/mL (VF 71%). The predictive value of the 12-month VL measurement was comparable to the composite of both the 6- and 12-month VL measurements and better than the 6-month VL measurement. Conclusions. At 12 months after ART initiation, 90% of patients were virally suppressed with a low likelihood of future VF. VL measurement at 12 months post-ART initiation predicts risk of VF and could inform differentiated virologic monitoring strategies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalOpen Forum Infectious Diseases
Issue number10
StatePublished - Oct 1 2018


  • Antiretroviral therapy
  • Differentiated care
  • Viral load monitoring
  • Viral suppression

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Clinical Neurology


Dive into the research topics of 'Results of early virologic monitoring may facilitate differentiated care monitoring strategies for clients on Art, Rakai, Uganda'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this