Regularities in human mortality after age 105

Jesús Adrián Alvarez, Francisco Villavicencio, Cosmo Strozza, Carlo Giovanni Camarda

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Empirical research on human mortality and extreme longevity suggests that the risk of death among the oldest-old ceases to increase and levels off at age 110. The universality of this finding remains in dispute because of two main reasons: i) high uncertainty around statistical estimates generated from scarce data, and ii) the lack of country-specific comparisons. In this article, we estimate age patterns of mortality above age 105 using data from the International Database on Longevity, an exceptionally large and recently updated database comprising more than 13,000 validated records of long-lived individuals from eight populations. We show that, in all of them, similar mortality trajectories arise, suggesting that the risk of dying levels off after age 105. As more high-quality data become available, there is more evidence in support of a levelling-off of the risk of dying as a regularity of longevous populations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere0253940
JournalPloS one
Issue number7 July
StatePublished - Jul 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General


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