Reactive vaccination in the presence of disease hotspots

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Reactive vaccination has recently been adopted as an outbreak response tool for cholera and other infectious diseases. Owing to the global shortage of oral cholera vaccine, health officials must quickly decide who and where to distribute limited vaccine. Targeted vaccination in transmission hotspots (i.e. areas with high transmission efficiency) may be a potential approach to efficiently allocate vaccine, however its effectiveness will likely be contextdependent. We compared strategies for allocating vaccine across multiple areas with heterogeneous transmission efficiency. We constructed metapopulation models of a cholera-like disease and compared simulated epidemics where: vaccine is targeted at areas of high or low transmission efficiency, where vaccine is distributed across the population, and where no vaccine is used.We find that connectivity between populations, transmission efficiency, vaccination timing and the amount of vaccine available all shape the performance of different allocation strategies. In highly connected settings (e.g. cities) when vaccinating early in the epidemic, targeting limited vaccine at transmission hotspots is often optimal. Once vaccination is delayed, targeting the hotspot is rarely optimal, and strategies that either spread vaccine between areas or those targeted at non-hotspots will avert more cases. Although hotspots may be an intuitive outbreak control target, we show that, in many situations, the hotspot-epidemic proceeds so fast that hotspot-targeted reactive vaccination will prevent relatively few cases, and vaccination shared across areas where transmission can be sustained is often best.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number20141341
JournalProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume282
Issue number1798
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 12 2014

Keywords

  • Cholera
  • Communicable disease control
  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious disease transmission
  • Outbreak response
  • Reactive vaccination

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Reactive vaccination in the presence of disease hotspots'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this