TY - JOUR
T1 - Quantifying Zika
T2 - Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika with Quantitative Models
AU - Keegan, Lindsay T.
AU - Lessler, Justin
AU - Johansson, Michael A.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - When Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, little was known about its biology, pathogenesis, and transmission potential, and the scope of the epidemic was largely hidden, owing to generally mild infections and no established surveillance systems. Surges in congenital defects and Guillain-Barré syndrome alerted the world to the danger of ZIKV. In the context of limited data, quantitative models were critical in reducing uncertainties and guiding the global ZIKV response. Here, we review some of the models used to assess the risk of ZIKV-associated severe outcomes, the potential speed and size of ZIKV epidemics, and the geographic distribution of ZIKV risk. These models provide important insights and highlight significant unresolved questions related to ZIKV and other emerging pathogens.
AB - When Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, little was known about its biology, pathogenesis, and transmission potential, and the scope of the epidemic was largely hidden, owing to generally mild infections and no established surveillance systems. Surges in congenital defects and Guillain-Barré syndrome alerted the world to the danger of ZIKV. In the context of limited data, quantitative models were critical in reducing uncertainties and guiding the global ZIKV response. Here, we review some of the models used to assess the risk of ZIKV-associated severe outcomes, the potential speed and size of ZIKV epidemics, and the geographic distribution of ZIKV risk. These models provide important insights and highlight significant unresolved questions related to ZIKV and other emerging pathogens.
KW - Zika
KW - epidemiology
KW - mathematical modeling
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U2 - 10.1093/infdis/jix437
DO - 10.1093/infdis/jix437
M3 - Review article
C2 - 29267915
AN - SCOPUS:85040232822
SN - 0022-1899
VL - 216
SP - S884-S890
JO - Journal of Infectious Diseases
JF - Journal of Infectious Diseases
ER -