Abstract
Millions of low-income adults are beginning to gain Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act. To forecast the resulting need for primary care providers, we estimate the effect of Medicaid take-up on visits to office-based primary care providers, including clinics. We estimate that adults with Medicaid coverage at any point in the year have an average of 1.32 visits per year to primary care providers, 0.48 more visits than low-income adults without Medicaid. Consequently, we project a need for 2,113 additional primary care providers (range: 1,130-3,138) if all states expand Medicaid. Our estimates are somewhat lower than several recent forecasts, which may not have controlled adequately for selection bias, and which used non-representative samples for forecasting. Our findings shed light on disparities in access to care, particularly in counties with relatively few primary care providers per capita. Efforts to expand access to primary care should focus on where providers practice, rather than simply training more providers.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 515-561 |
| Number of pages | 47 |
| Journal | Medical Care Research and Review |
| Volume | 72 |
| Issue number | 5 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Oct 5 2015 |
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Keywords
- health care reform
- Medicaid
- primary care workforce
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Health Policy
Cite this
Projecting Primary Care Use in the Medicaid Expansion Population : Evidence for Providers and Policy Makers. / Roberts, Eric T.; Gaskin, Darrell.
In: Medical Care Research and Review, Vol. 72, No. 5, 05.10.2015, p. 515-561.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Projecting Primary Care Use in the Medicaid Expansion Population
T2 - Evidence for Providers and Policy Makers
AU - Roberts, Eric T.
AU - Gaskin, Darrell
PY - 2015/10/5
Y1 - 2015/10/5
N2 - Millions of low-income adults are beginning to gain Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act. To forecast the resulting need for primary care providers, we estimate the effect of Medicaid take-up on visits to office-based primary care providers, including clinics. We estimate that adults with Medicaid coverage at any point in the year have an average of 1.32 visits per year to primary care providers, 0.48 more visits than low-income adults without Medicaid. Consequently, we project a need for 2,113 additional primary care providers (range: 1,130-3,138) if all states expand Medicaid. Our estimates are somewhat lower than several recent forecasts, which may not have controlled adequately for selection bias, and which used non-representative samples for forecasting. Our findings shed light on disparities in access to care, particularly in counties with relatively few primary care providers per capita. Efforts to expand access to primary care should focus on where providers practice, rather than simply training more providers.
AB - Millions of low-income adults are beginning to gain Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act. To forecast the resulting need for primary care providers, we estimate the effect of Medicaid take-up on visits to office-based primary care providers, including clinics. We estimate that adults with Medicaid coverage at any point in the year have an average of 1.32 visits per year to primary care providers, 0.48 more visits than low-income adults without Medicaid. Consequently, we project a need for 2,113 additional primary care providers (range: 1,130-3,138) if all states expand Medicaid. Our estimates are somewhat lower than several recent forecasts, which may not have controlled adequately for selection bias, and which used non-representative samples for forecasting. Our findings shed light on disparities in access to care, particularly in counties with relatively few primary care providers per capita. Efforts to expand access to primary care should focus on where providers practice, rather than simply training more providers.
KW - health care reform
KW - Medicaid
KW - primary care workforce
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84940952463&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84940952463&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/1077558715588435
DO - 10.1177/1077558715588435
M3 - Article
C2 - 26062613
AN - SCOPUS:84940952463
VL - 72
SP - 515
EP - 561
JO - Medical Care Research and Review
JF - Medical Care Research and Review
SN - 1077-5587
IS - 5
ER -