TY - JOUR
T1 - Projected mortality from lung cancer in South Korea, 1980-2004
AU - Jee, Sun Ha
AU - Kim, Il Soon
AU - Suh, Il
AU - Shin, Dongchun
AU - Appel, Lawrence J.
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was partially supported by a fellowship grant (WPRO 0538/95) to Dr Jee from the World Health Organization and by a Clinical Investigator Award (HL02642) to Dr Appel from the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute. The authors wish to thank Drs Frances A Stillman, and Helen Abbey, from Johns Hopkins University and Jae Won Choi, from National Center for Health Statistics for their expert advice during manuscript preparation and statistical modelling.
PY - 1998/6
Y1 - 1998/6
N2 - Background. In recent years, mortality from lung cancer has increased rapidly in Korea, a South East Asian country with a high prevalence of smoking. The objectives of this study are to examine how age, period, and birth cohort effects contributed to trends in lung cancer mortality in Korea 1980-1994, and to predict lung cancer mortality rates for 1995-2004. Methods. Age- and sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates were obtained from annual reports of the National Office of Statistics in Korea. Poisson regression models were used to estimate age, period and cohort effects. Results. Among men, age-adjusted annual mortality rates from lung cancer (per 100000) increased from 3.7 in 1980 to 17.8 in 1994; corresponding rates for women were 1.4 and 7.0. As age increased, mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly in men than in women. Within the same age group, the mortality of younger cohorts was higher than older cohorts. The average annual number of lung cancer deaths projected for the years 2000-2004 among men and women will be 15,441 and 3572 respectively, while the average annual age-adjusted mortality rates from lung cancer (per 100,000) will be 65.4 for men and 15.1 for women. These rates correspond to 17.7- and 10.7-fold increases over the 1980 mortality rates in men and women, respectively. Conclusions. These results, in conjunction with trends in tobacco consumption, indicate that mortality from lung cancer in both men and women will increase substantially through the early part of the 21st century in Korea.
AB - Background. In recent years, mortality from lung cancer has increased rapidly in Korea, a South East Asian country with a high prevalence of smoking. The objectives of this study are to examine how age, period, and birth cohort effects contributed to trends in lung cancer mortality in Korea 1980-1994, and to predict lung cancer mortality rates for 1995-2004. Methods. Age- and sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates were obtained from annual reports of the National Office of Statistics in Korea. Poisson regression models were used to estimate age, period and cohort effects. Results. Among men, age-adjusted annual mortality rates from lung cancer (per 100000) increased from 3.7 in 1980 to 17.8 in 1994; corresponding rates for women were 1.4 and 7.0. As age increased, mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly in men than in women. Within the same age group, the mortality of younger cohorts was higher than older cohorts. The average annual number of lung cancer deaths projected for the years 2000-2004 among men and women will be 15,441 and 3572 respectively, while the average annual age-adjusted mortality rates from lung cancer (per 100,000) will be 65.4 for men and 15.1 for women. These rates correspond to 17.7- and 10.7-fold increases over the 1980 mortality rates in men and women, respectively. Conclusions. These results, in conjunction with trends in tobacco consumption, indicate that mortality from lung cancer in both men and women will increase substantially through the early part of the 21st century in Korea.
KW - Age-period-cohort analysis
KW - Lung cancer
KW - Tobacco consumption
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U2 - 10.1093/ije/27.3.365
DO - 10.1093/ije/27.3.365
M3 - Article
C2 - 9698121
AN - SCOPUS:0031816486
SN - 0300-5771
VL - 27
SP - 365
EP - 369
JO - International journal of epidemiology
JF - International journal of epidemiology
IS - 3
ER -