Predictors of long-term opioid use after elective primary total shoulder arthroplasty

Opioids are prescribed routinely for pain after total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA). This study was designed to characterize opioid use after elective primary TSA and identify predictors of long-term postoperative opioid use. The authors used the MarketScan administrative claims database to identify 5676 adults who underwent elective primary TSA between 2010 and 2015 and had 1 year or more of continuous insurance enrollment, including prescription drug coverage, postoperatively. Long-term postoperative opioid use was defined as filling prescriptions totaling a 120-day or greater supply during the 3- to 12-month postoperative period. The authors performed univariate regression analysis with age, sex, US region, anatomic or reverse TSA, anxiety, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, depression, diabetes, history of drug abuse, hypertension, obesity, osteoporosis, history of myocardial infarction, and current tobacco use. Variables that were significant at P<.05 were included in multivariate logistic regression. Overall, 16% of patients had long-term postoperative opioid use, which was strongly predicted by the multivariate model (area under the curve, 0.77; P<.001). The strongest predictors in the multivariate analysis were preoperative opioid use (odds ratio [OR], 4.7; 95% CI, 4.0-5.5), history of drug abuse (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.9), depression (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.6-2.3), anxiety (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.7), surgery performed in the Western United States (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.4), and reverse TSA (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.8). Most patients do not have long-term opioid use after elective primary TSA. Strong predictors of long-term postoperative opioid use are preoperative opioid use, history of drug abuse, depression, anxiety, reverse TSA, and surgery performed in the Western United States.