Predicting the Risk of Readmission From Dehydration After Ileostomy Formation: The Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction Score

Sophia Y. Chen, Miloslawa Stem, Marcelo Cerullo, Joseph K. Canner, Susan L Gearhart, Bashar Safar, Sandy H Fang, Jonathan Efron

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

BACKGROUND: All-cause readmission rates in patients undergoing ileostomy formation are as high as 20% to 30%. Dehydration is a leading cause. No predictive model for dehydration readmission has been described. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction scoring system to predict the risk of readmission for dehydration after ileostomy formation. DESIGN: Patients who underwent ileostomy formation were identified using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data set (2012-2015). Predictors for dehydration were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis and translated into a point scoring system based on corresponding β-coefficients using 2012-2014 data (derivation). Model discrimination was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curves using 2015 data (validation). SETTINGS: This study used the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. PATIENTS: A total of 8064 (derivation) and 3467 patients (validation) were included from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Dehydration readmission within 30 days of operation was measured. RESULTS: A total of 8064 patients were in the derivation sample, with 2.9% (20.1% overall) readmitted for dehydration. Twenty-five variables were queried, and 7 predictors were identified with points assigned: ASA class III (4 points), female sex (5 points), IPAA (4 points), age ≥65 years (5 points), shortened length of stay (5 points), ASA class I to II with IBD (7 points), and hypertension (9 points). A 39-point, 5-tier risk category scoring system was developed. The model performed well in derivation (area under curve = 0.71) and validation samples (area under curve = 0.74) and passed the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. LIMITATIONS: Limitations of this study pertained to those of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, including a lack of generalizability, lack of ileostomy-specific variables, and inability to capture multiple readmission International Classification of Diseases, 9/10 edition, codes. CONCLUSIONS: The Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction score is a validated scoring system that identifies patients at risk for dehydration readmission after ileostomy formation. It is a specific approach to optimize patient factors, implement interventions, and prevent readmissions. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A746.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1410-1417
Number of pages8
JournalDiseases of the Colon and Rectum
Volume61
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2018

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Ileostomy
Dehydration
Quality Improvement
Area Under Curve
International Classification of Diseases
ROC Curve
Length of Stay
Logistic Models
Regression Analysis
Hypertension

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Gastroenterology

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Predicting the Risk of Readmission From Dehydration After Ileostomy Formation : The Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction Score. / Chen, Sophia Y.; Stem, Miloslawa; Cerullo, Marcelo; Canner, Joseph K.; Gearhart, Susan L; Safar, Bashar; Fang, Sandy H; Efron, Jonathan.

In: Diseases of the Colon and Rectum, Vol. 61, No. 12, 01.12.2018, p. 1410-1417.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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abstract = "BACKGROUND: All-cause readmission rates in patients undergoing ileostomy formation are as high as 20{\%} to 30{\%}. Dehydration is a leading cause. No predictive model for dehydration readmission has been described. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction scoring system to predict the risk of readmission for dehydration after ileostomy formation. DESIGN: Patients who underwent ileostomy formation were identified using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data set (2012-2015). Predictors for dehydration were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis and translated into a point scoring system based on corresponding β-coefficients using 2012-2014 data (derivation). Model discrimination was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curves using 2015 data (validation). SETTINGS: This study used the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. PATIENTS: A total of 8064 (derivation) and 3467 patients (validation) were included from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Dehydration readmission within 30 days of operation was measured. RESULTS: A total of 8064 patients were in the derivation sample, with 2.9{\%} (20.1{\%} overall) readmitted for dehydration. Twenty-five variables were queried, and 7 predictors were identified with points assigned: ASA class III (4 points), female sex (5 points), IPAA (4 points), age ≥65 years (5 points), shortened length of stay (5 points), ASA class I to II with IBD (7 points), and hypertension (9 points). A 39-point, 5-tier risk category scoring system was developed. The model performed well in derivation (area under curve = 0.71) and validation samples (area under curve = 0.74) and passed the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. LIMITATIONS: Limitations of this study pertained to those of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, including a lack of generalizability, lack of ileostomy-specific variables, and inability to capture multiple readmission International Classification of Diseases, 9/10 edition, codes. CONCLUSIONS: The Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction score is a validated scoring system that identifies patients at risk for dehydration readmission after ileostomy formation. It is a specific approach to optimize patient factors, implement interventions, and prevent readmissions. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A746.",
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AU - Stem, Miloslawa

AU - Cerullo, Marcelo

AU - Canner, Joseph K.

AU - Gearhart, Susan L

AU - Safar, Bashar

AU - Fang, Sandy H

AU - Efron, Jonathan

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N2 - BACKGROUND: All-cause readmission rates in patients undergoing ileostomy formation are as high as 20% to 30%. Dehydration is a leading cause. No predictive model for dehydration readmission has been described. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction scoring system to predict the risk of readmission for dehydration after ileostomy formation. DESIGN: Patients who underwent ileostomy formation were identified using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data set (2012-2015). Predictors for dehydration were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis and translated into a point scoring system based on corresponding β-coefficients using 2012-2014 data (derivation). Model discrimination was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curves using 2015 data (validation). SETTINGS: This study used the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. PATIENTS: A total of 8064 (derivation) and 3467 patients (validation) were included from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Dehydration readmission within 30 days of operation was measured. RESULTS: A total of 8064 patients were in the derivation sample, with 2.9% (20.1% overall) readmitted for dehydration. Twenty-five variables were queried, and 7 predictors were identified with points assigned: ASA class III (4 points), female sex (5 points), IPAA (4 points), age ≥65 years (5 points), shortened length of stay (5 points), ASA class I to II with IBD (7 points), and hypertension (9 points). A 39-point, 5-tier risk category scoring system was developed. The model performed well in derivation (area under curve = 0.71) and validation samples (area under curve = 0.74) and passed the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. LIMITATIONS: Limitations of this study pertained to those of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, including a lack of generalizability, lack of ileostomy-specific variables, and inability to capture multiple readmission International Classification of Diseases, 9/10 edition, codes. CONCLUSIONS: The Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction score is a validated scoring system that identifies patients at risk for dehydration readmission after ileostomy formation. It is a specific approach to optimize patient factors, implement interventions, and prevent readmissions. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A746.

AB - BACKGROUND: All-cause readmission rates in patients undergoing ileostomy formation are as high as 20% to 30%. Dehydration is a leading cause. No predictive model for dehydration readmission has been described. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate the Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction scoring system to predict the risk of readmission for dehydration after ileostomy formation. DESIGN: Patients who underwent ileostomy formation were identified using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data set (2012-2015). Predictors for dehydration were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis and translated into a point scoring system based on corresponding β-coefficients using 2012-2014 data (derivation). Model discrimination was assessed with receiver operating characteristic curves using 2015 data (validation). SETTINGS: This study used the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. PATIENTS: A total of 8064 (derivation) and 3467 patients (validation) were included from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Dehydration readmission within 30 days of operation was measured. RESULTS: A total of 8064 patients were in the derivation sample, with 2.9% (20.1% overall) readmitted for dehydration. Twenty-five variables were queried, and 7 predictors were identified with points assigned: ASA class III (4 points), female sex (5 points), IPAA (4 points), age ≥65 years (5 points), shortened length of stay (5 points), ASA class I to II with IBD (7 points), and hypertension (9 points). A 39-point, 5-tier risk category scoring system was developed. The model performed well in derivation (area under curve = 0.71) and validation samples (area under curve = 0.74) and passed the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. LIMITATIONS: Limitations of this study pertained to those of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, including a lack of generalizability, lack of ileostomy-specific variables, and inability to capture multiple readmission International Classification of Diseases, 9/10 edition, codes. CONCLUSIONS: The Dehydration Readmission After Ileostomy Prediction score is a validated scoring system that identifies patients at risk for dehydration readmission after ileostomy formation. It is a specific approach to optimize patient factors, implement interventions, and prevent readmissions. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A746.

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