TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting the risk of mobility difficulty in older women with screening nomograms
T2 - The Women's Health and Aging Study II
AU - Chaves, P. H.M.
AU - Garrett, E. S.
AU - Fried, L. P.
PY - 2000/9/11
Y1 - 2000/9/11
N2 - Background: A major obstacle to screening for early mobility disability (ie, mobility difficulty), a major public health concern, is the lack of a method that identifies those who are at high risk. The goal of this study was to develop easy-to-use clinical nomograms for estimation of the probability of incident mobility difficulty. Methods: We conducted a population-based prospective study using data from 266 high physically and cognitively functioning older women, aged 70 to 80 years, who were free of mobility disability at the baseline evaluation of the Women's Health and Aging Study II. The outcome measure was incident mobility disability within 18 months, defined as self-reported difficulty walking 0.8 km, climbing 10 steps, or transferring from or into a car or bus. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used for evaluation of the optimal combination of self-reported and performance-based mobility measures. Bootstrap sampling and estimation was used for validation. Results: Predictive nomograms were developed based on a final model that included 3 simple-to-obtain measures of preclinical disability: self-report of modification in mobility tasks without having difficulty with them, one-leg stance balance, and time to walk 1 m at a usual pace. Final model accuracy (as estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was 73% (SE= 0.04). Validation analysis confirmed the high accuracy of these nomograms. Conclusions: An original tool was developed for assessment of the risk of mobility difficulty in older women that can be used to assist physicians and researchers in deciding which women to target for preventive interventions.
AB - Background: A major obstacle to screening for early mobility disability (ie, mobility difficulty), a major public health concern, is the lack of a method that identifies those who are at high risk. The goal of this study was to develop easy-to-use clinical nomograms for estimation of the probability of incident mobility difficulty. Methods: We conducted a population-based prospective study using data from 266 high physically and cognitively functioning older women, aged 70 to 80 years, who were free of mobility disability at the baseline evaluation of the Women's Health and Aging Study II. The outcome measure was incident mobility disability within 18 months, defined as self-reported difficulty walking 0.8 km, climbing 10 steps, or transferring from or into a car or bus. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used for evaluation of the optimal combination of self-reported and performance-based mobility measures. Bootstrap sampling and estimation was used for validation. Results: Predictive nomograms were developed based on a final model that included 3 simple-to-obtain measures of preclinical disability: self-report of modification in mobility tasks without having difficulty with them, one-leg stance balance, and time to walk 1 m at a usual pace. Final model accuracy (as estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was 73% (SE= 0.04). Validation analysis confirmed the high accuracy of these nomograms. Conclusions: An original tool was developed for assessment of the risk of mobility difficulty in older women that can be used to assist physicians and researchers in deciding which women to target for preventive interventions.
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U2 - 10.1001/archinte.160.16.2525
DO - 10.1001/archinte.160.16.2525
M3 - Article
C2 - 10979066
AN - SCOPUS:0034638073
SN - 0003-9926
VL - 160
SP - 2525
EP - 2533
JO - Archives of internal medicine
JF - Archives of internal medicine
IS - 16
ER -