Predicting rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element models: Development and preliminary evaluation of aprobabilistic analytical framework

Jason L. Forman, Richard W. Kent, Krystoffer Mroz, Bengt Pipkorn, Ola Bostrom, Maria Segui-Gomez

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5-7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (AV, NASS-CDS 1992-2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAnnals of Advances in Automotive Medicine
Pages109-124
Number of pages16
Volume56
StatePublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes
Event56th Annual Scientific Conference of the Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine - Seattle, WA, United States
Duration: Oct 14 2012Oct 17 2012

Other

Other56th Annual Scientific Conference of the Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine
CountryUnited States
CitySeattle, WA
Period10/14/1210/17/12

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Automotive Engineering
  • Biomedical Engineering
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Medicine(all)

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    Forman, J. L., Kent, R. W., Mroz, K., Pipkorn, B., Bostrom, O., & Segui-Gomez, M. (2012). Predicting rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element models: Development and preliminary evaluation of aprobabilistic analytical framework. In Annals of Advances in Automotive Medicine (Vol. 56, pp. 109-124)