Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

W. J M Martens, Louis Niessen, J. Rotmans, T. H. Jetten, A. J. McMichael

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to the climate influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change of the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the number of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environment conditions, the effect of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)458-464
Number of pages7
JournalEnvironmental Health Perspectives
Volume103
Issue number5
StatePublished - 1995
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Climate Change
malaria
Climate change
Malaria
global climate
climate change
Malaria control
Bioactivity
Health
Southeastern Asia
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
South America
Incidence
disability
health impact
Climate
general circulation model
parasite
Parasites
Temperature

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Disability-adjusted life years
  • Integrated modeling approach
  • Malaria

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

Martens, W. J. M., Niessen, L., Rotmans, J., Jetten, T. H., & McMichael, A. J. (1995). Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk. Environmental Health Perspectives, 103(5), 458-464.

Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk. / Martens, W. J M; Niessen, Louis; Rotmans, J.; Jetten, T. H.; McMichael, A. J.

In: Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 103, No. 5, 1995, p. 458-464.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Martens, WJM, Niessen, L, Rotmans, J, Jetten, TH & McMichael, AJ 1995, 'Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk', Environmental Health Perspectives, vol. 103, no. 5, pp. 458-464.
Martens WJM, Niessen L, Rotmans J, Jetten TH, McMichael AJ. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk. Environmental Health Perspectives. 1995;103(5):458-464.
Martens, W. J M ; Niessen, Louis ; Rotmans, J. ; Jetten, T. H. ; McMichael, A. J. / Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk. In: Environmental Health Perspectives. 1995 ; Vol. 103, No. 5. pp. 458-464.
@article{805232c3f6174d979c7ee4e4183630e9,
title = "Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk",
abstract = "The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to the climate influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change of the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the number of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environment conditions, the effect of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities.",
keywords = "Climate change, Disability-adjusted life years, Integrated modeling approach, Malaria",
author = "Martens, {W. J M} and Louis Niessen and J. Rotmans and Jetten, {T. H.} and McMichael, {A. J.}",
year = "1995",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "103",
pages = "458--464",
journal = "Environmental Health Perspectives",
issn = "0091-6765",
publisher = "Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services",
number = "5",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

AU - Martens, W. J M

AU - Niessen, Louis

AU - Rotmans, J.

AU - Jetten, T. H.

AU - McMichael, A. J.

PY - 1995

Y1 - 1995

N2 - The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to the climate influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change of the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the number of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environment conditions, the effect of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities.

AB - The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to the climate influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change of the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the number of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environment conditions, the effect of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities.

KW - Climate change

KW - Disability-adjusted life years

KW - Integrated modeling approach

KW - Malaria

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0029060048&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0029060048&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

VL - 103

SP - 458

EP - 464

JO - Environmental Health Perspectives

JF - Environmental Health Perspectives

SN - 0091-6765

IS - 5

ER -