Planning personal health services: A Markovian model

A Markovian planning model is presented. It takes into account the dynamics of the health services system and allows health planners flexibility in a continuously changing environment. Analysis of the Markovian model leads to its three applications: 1) prediction, i.e., determining future requirements for manpower and resources for any population defined in terms of desired or specified demographic and/or epidemiologic characteristics; 2) simulation, i.e., analysis of changes in the health services system and/or in demographic and/or epidemiologic variables and the repercussions of these changes on present and future resources; 3) goal seeking, i.e., the design of several alternative strategies of reaching, in a given time period, specified utilization patterns or organizational arrangements, and the choice of the “best” alternative according to defined constraints such as “cost” or “minimum changes in current resources,” etc. The three applications of the model have been used in different situations. Empirical data from diverse sources has been used. Within the conceptual framework of the model the levels of care and the composition of population groups can be changed to meet desired criteria.