Planning and response in the aftermath of a large crisis: An agent-based informatics framework

Christopher Barrett, Keith Bisset, Shridhar Chandan, Jiangzhuo Chen, Youngyun Chungbaek, Stephen Eubank, Yaman Evrenosoglu, Bryan Lewis, Kristian Lum, Achla Marathe, Madhav Marathe, Henning Mortveit, Nidhi Parikh, Arun Phadke, Jeffrey Reed, Caitlin Rivers, Sudip Saha, Paula Stretz, Samarth Swarup, James ThorpAnil Vullikanti, Dawen Xie

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

We present a synthetic information and modeling environment that can allow policy makers to study various counter-factual experiments in the event of a large human-initiated crisis. The specific scenario we consider is a ground detonation caused by an improvised nuclear device in a large urban region. In contrast to earlier work in this area that focuses largely on the prompt effects on human health and injury, we focus on co-evolution of individual and collective behavior and its interaction with the differentially damaged infrastructure. This allows us to study short term secondary and tertiary effects. The present environment is suitable for studying the dynamical outcomes over a two week period after the initial blast. A novel computing and data processing architecture is described; the architecture allows us to represent multiple co-evolving infrastructures and social networks at a highly resolved temporal, spatial, and individual scale. The representation allows us to study the emergent behavior of individuals as well as specific strategies to reduce casualties and injuries that exploit the spatial and temporal nature of the secondary and tertiary effects. A number of important conclusions are obtained using the modeling environment. For example, the studies decisively show that deploying ad hoc communication networks to reach individuals in the affected area is likely to have a significant impact on the overall casualties and injuries.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference - Simulation
Subtitle of host publicationMaking Decisions in a Complex World, WSC 2013
Pages1515-1526
Number of pages12
DOIs
StatePublished - 2013
Externally publishedYes
Event2013 43rd Winter Simulation Conference - Simulation: Making Decisions in a Complex World, WSC 2013 - Washington, DC, United States
Duration: Dec 8 2013Dec 11 2013

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference - Simulation: Making Decisions in a Complex World, WSC 2013

Other

Other2013 43rd Winter Simulation Conference - Simulation: Making Decisions in a Complex World, WSC 2013
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityWashington, DC
Period12/8/1312/11/13

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation

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