Peri-Infarct Quantification by Cardiac Magnetic Resonance to Predict Outcomes in Ischemic Cardiomyopathy: Prognostic Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: In ischemic cardiomyopathy, cardiac magnetic resonance assessment of the peri-infarct zone, a potential substrate for arrhythmogenesis, may serve as a novel prognosticator and guide the optimal use of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis assessing the prognostic value of the peri-infarct zone on late gadolinium enhancement cardiac magnetic resonance in ischemic cardiomyopathy. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online), EMBASE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online), and CENTRAL (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online) from inception to January 2019 for prognostic studies relating peri-infarct size with clinical outcomes in ischemic cardiomyopathy. Two authors independently performed study selection and data extraction. Pooled effect estimates were calculated with random effects models, risk of bias and strength of evidence were assessed by the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Education, respectively. RESULTS: Twenty studies were eligible, representing 14 cohort studies (n=1518) with mean follow-up of 3.6 years and 6 cross-sectional studies (n=189). The extent of the peri-infarct zone was significantly predictive of all-cause mortality (3 studies; n=539; hazard ratio, 1.34/10 g [95% CI, 1.13-1.59]; I2=0%; high-quality evidence), appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy (5 studies; n=361; hazard ratio, 1.31/10 g [95% CI, 1.17-1.47]; I2=0%; high-quality evidence), and inducibility of ventricular tachycardia on electrophysiological study (5 studies; n=167; OR, 2.63/g [95% CI, 1.39-4.96]; I2=14%; low-quality evidence). After adjusting for age and left ventricular ejection fraction, the peri-infarct zone, as a percentage of total infarct size, remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (2 studies; n=445; hazard ratio, 1.29/10% [95% CI, 1.15-1.44]; I2=0%; high-quality evidence). CONCLUSIONS: There is limited but consistent evidence that quantification of the peri-infarct zone predicts long-term mortality and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy in ischemic cardiomyopathy. Future studies should confirm whether late gadolinium enhancement-cardiac magnetic resonance assessment may improve implantable cardioverter-defibrillator treatment decisions. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/. Unique identifier: CRD42017077337.