Pathways to perinatal depressive symptoms after mass conflict in Timor-Leste: A modelling analysis using cross-sectional data

Background: The contributions of potentially traumatic events (PTEs) of mass conflict and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms to perinatal depression in women living in low-income, post-conflict countries are unclear. We tested a model including these factors, intimate partner violence (IPV), and continuing adversity in women in Timor-Leste. Methods: Our modelling study used cross-sectional data from a sample of women living in two districts in Timor-Leste, identified through service registers, clinic records, village chiefs, and a door-to-door survey between June, 2012, and June, 2013. Eligible women were 3-6 months pregnant or 3-6 months postpartum. We assessed conflict-related PTEs, IPV, continuing adversity (poverty and insecurity), PTSD symptoms (the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire), and maternal depressive symptoms (the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale [EPDS]) to develop a theoretical model to examine pathways leading directly and indirectly to depressive symptoms. Findings: We assessed 427 eligible women, of whom 258 (60%) were pregnant and 169 (40%) were postnatal. 87 (22%) of 387 women who were given the EPDS to complete were above the threshold used to define depression, and 40 (9%) of 427 were regarded as having PTSD. Our most comprehensive model showed that IPV and conflict-related deprivations led directly to depressive symptoms as well as to continuing adversity. Human rights-related trauma, witnessing murder, and a further path from IPV led to PTSD symptoms. Human rights-related trauma also led to continuing adversity. Paths from continuing adversity led to depressive symptoms, and PTSD symptoms, which was the predominant path. We noted a strong and unidirectional path from PTSD symptoms to depressive symptoms. Interpretation: Protection of women from human rights abuses, prevention of IPV, reduction in insecurity and poverty in the post-conflict period, and identification of and treatment for PTSD symptoms might reduce the risk of perinatal depression in post-conflict, low-income countries. Longitudinal studies are needed to confirm these findings. Funding: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.