Ozone and short-term mortality in 95 US urban communities, 1987-2000

Michelle L. Bell, Aidan McDermott, Scott Zeger, Jonathan M. Samet, Francesca Dominici

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Context: Ozone has been associated with various adverse health effects, including increased rates of hospital admissions and exacerbation of respiratory illnesses. Although numerous time-series studies have estimated associations between day-to-day variation in ozone levels and mortality counts, results have been inconclusive. Objective: To investigate whether short-term (daily and weekly) exposure to ambient ozone is associated with mortality in the United States. Design and Setting: Using analytical methods and databases developed for the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study, we estimated a national average relative rate of mortality associated with short-term exposure to ambient ozone for 95 large US urban communities from 1987-2000. We used distributed-lag models for estimating community-specific relative rates of mortality adjusted for time-varying confounders (particulate matter, weather, seasonality, and long-term trends) and hierarchical models for combining relative rates across communities to estimate a national average relative rate, taking into account spatial heterogeneity. Main Outcome Measure: Daily counts of total non-injury-related mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in 95 large US communities during a 14-year period. Results: A 10-ppb increase in the previous week's ozone was associated with a 0.52% increase in daily mortality (95% posterior interval [PI], 0.27%-0.77%) and a 0.64% increase in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (95% PI, 0.31%-0.98%). Effect estimates for aggregate ozone during the previous week were larger than for models considering only a single day's exposure. Results were robust to adjustment for particulate matter, weather, seasonality, and long-term trends. Conclusions: These results indicate a statistically significant association between short-term changes in ozone and mortality on average for 95 large US urban communities, which include about 40% of the total US population. The findings indicate that this widespread pollutant adversely affects public health.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2372-2378
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of the American Medical Association
Volume292
Issue number19
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 17 2004

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Ozone
Mortality
Particulate Matter
Weather
antineoplaston A10
Air Pollution
Public Health
Outcome Assessment (Health Care)
Databases
Morbidity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

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Ozone and short-term mortality in 95 US urban communities, 1987-2000. / Bell, Michelle L.; McDermott, Aidan; Zeger, Scott; Samet, Jonathan M.; Dominici, Francesca.

In: Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 292, No. 19, 17.11.2004, p. 2372-2378.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Bell, Michelle L. ; McDermott, Aidan ; Zeger, Scott ; Samet, Jonathan M. ; Dominici, Francesca. / Ozone and short-term mortality in 95 US urban communities, 1987-2000. In: Journal of the American Medical Association. 2004 ; Vol. 292, No. 19. pp. 2372-2378.
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abstract = "Context: Ozone has been associated with various adverse health effects, including increased rates of hospital admissions and exacerbation of respiratory illnesses. Although numerous time-series studies have estimated associations between day-to-day variation in ozone levels and mortality counts, results have been inconclusive. Objective: To investigate whether short-term (daily and weekly) exposure to ambient ozone is associated with mortality in the United States. Design and Setting: Using analytical methods and databases developed for the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study, we estimated a national average relative rate of mortality associated with short-term exposure to ambient ozone for 95 large US urban communities from 1987-2000. We used distributed-lag models for estimating community-specific relative rates of mortality adjusted for time-varying confounders (particulate matter, weather, seasonality, and long-term trends) and hierarchical models for combining relative rates across communities to estimate a national average relative rate, taking into account spatial heterogeneity. Main Outcome Measure: Daily counts of total non-injury-related mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in 95 large US communities during a 14-year period. Results: A 10-ppb increase in the previous week's ozone was associated with a 0.52{\%} increase in daily mortality (95{\%} posterior interval [PI], 0.27{\%}-0.77{\%}) and a 0.64{\%} increase in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality (95{\%} PI, 0.31{\%}-0.98{\%}). Effect estimates for aggregate ozone during the previous week were larger than for models considering only a single day's exposure. Results were robust to adjustment for particulate matter, weather, seasonality, and long-term trends. Conclusions: These results indicate a statistically significant association between short-term changes in ozone and mortality on average for 95 large US urban communities, which include about 40{\%} of the total US population. The findings indicate that this widespread pollutant adversely affects public health.",
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