Organ transplantation policy evaluation

A. Alan B. Pritsker, David L. Martin, Janet S. Reust, Mary Ann Wagner, James R. Wilson, Michael E. Kuhl, Margaret D. Allen, O. Patrick Daily, Ann M. Harper, Erick B. Edwards, Leah E. Bennett, John P. Roberts, James F. Burdick

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review


This paper on the UNOS Liver Allocation Model (ULAM) describes the building of a simulation model that supports policy evaluation for a national medical problem. The modeling and simulation techniques used in building ULAM include: fitting donor and patient arrival processes having trend and cyclic rate components using non-homogeneous Poisson processes (NHPPs) having exponential rate functions which may include both a polynomial and some trigonometric components; fitting distributions to data on transition times between states of medical urgency; application of variance reduction techniques using common random-number streams and prior information; organizing data structures for efficient file searching and ranking capabilities; the use of bootstrapping techniques for attribute sampling; the building of submodels employing biostatistical procedures such as Kaplan-Meier and logistic regression; and the characterization of performance measures within a complex political, economic and social environment. ULAM provides a means for producing quantitative information to support the selection of a liver allocation policy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1314-1322
Number of pages9
JournalWinter Simulation Conference Proceedings
StatePublished - Dec 1 1995
Externally publishedYes
EventProceedings of the 1995 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC'95 - Arlington, VA, USA
Duration: Dec 3 1995Dec 6 1995

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Chemical Health and Safety
  • Applied Mathematics

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