Optimal metrics for identifying long term patterns of depression in older HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men

Objectives: Center of Epidemiologic Studies–Depression Scale (CES-D) provides a snapshot of symptom severity at a single point in time. However, the best way of using CES-D to classify long-term depression is unclear. Method: To identify long-term depression among HIV-infected and HIV–uninfected 50+ year-old men who have sex with men (MSM) with at least 5 years of follow-up, we compared sensitivities and specificities of CES-D–based metrics (baseline CES-D; four consecutive CES-Ds; group-based trajectory models) thresholded at 16 and 20 to a clinician's evaluation of depression phenotype based on all available data including CES-D history, depression treatment history, drug use history, HIV disease factors, and demographic characteristics. Results: A positive depressive phenotype prevalence was common among HIV-infected (prevalence = 33.1%) and HIV-uninfected MSM (prevalence = 23.2%). Compared to the depressive phenotype, trajectory models of CES-D≥20 provided highest specificities among HIV-infected (specificity = 99.9%, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]:99.4%–100.0%) and HIV-uninfected MSM (specificity = 99.0%, 95% CI:97.4%–99.7%). Highest sensitivities resulted from classifying baseline CES-D ≥ 16 among HIV-infected MSM (sensitivity = 75.0%, 95% CI:67.3%–81.7%) and four consecutive CES-Ds ≥ 16 among HIV-uninfected MSM (sensitivity = 81.0%, 95% CI:73.7%–87.0%). Conclusion: Choice of method should vary, depending on importance of false positive or negative rate for long-term depression in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected MSM.