Net survival of perinatally and postnatally HIV-infected children

A pooled analysis of individual data from sub-Saharan Africa

Milly Marston, Renaud Becquet, Basia Zaba, Lawrence Hale Moulton, Glenda Gray, Hoosen Coovadia, Max Essex, Didier K. Ekouevi, Debra Jackson, Anna Coutsoudis, Charles Kilewo, Valériane Leroy, Stefan Wiktor, Ruth Nduati, Philippe Msellati, François Dabis, Marie Louise Newell, Peter D. Ghys

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: Previously, HIV epidemic models have used a double Weibull curve to represent high initial and late mortality of HIV-infected children, without distinguishing timing of infection (peri- or post-natally). With more data on timing of infection, which may be associated with disease progression, a separate representation of children infected early and late was proposed. Methods: Paediatric survival post-HIV infection without anti-retroviral treatment was calculated using pooled data from 12 studies with known timing of HIV infection. Children were grouped into perinatally or post-natally infected. Net mortality was calculated using cause-deleted life tables to give survival as if HIV was the only competing cause of death. To extend the curve beyond the available data, children surviving beyond 2.5 years post infection were assumed to have the same survival as young adults. Double Weibull curves were fitted to both extended survival curves to represent survival of children infected perinatally or through breastfeeding. Results: Those children infected perinatally had a much higher risk of dying than those infected through breastfeeding, even allowing for background mortality. The final-fitted double Weibull curves gave 75% survival at 5 months after infection for perinatally infected, and 1.1 years for post-natally infected children. An estimated 25% of the early infected children would still be alive at 10.6 years compared with 16.9 years for those infected through breastfeeding. Conclusions: The increase in available data has enabled separation of child mortality patterns by timing of infection allowing improvement and more flexibility in modelling of paediatric HIV infection and survival. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberdyq255
Pages (from-to)385-396
Number of pages12
JournalInternational Journal of Epidemiology
Volume40
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2011

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Africa South of the Sahara
HIV
Breast Feeding
HIV Infections
Infection
Mortality
Pediatrics
Child Mortality
Life Tables
Disease Progression
Young Adult
Cause of Death

Keywords

  • HIV
  • Paediatric
  • Survival

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology

Cite this

Net survival of perinatally and postnatally HIV-infected children : A pooled analysis of individual data from sub-Saharan Africa. / Marston, Milly; Becquet, Renaud; Zaba, Basia; Moulton, Lawrence Hale; Gray, Glenda; Coovadia, Hoosen; Essex, Max; Ekouevi, Didier K.; Jackson, Debra; Coutsoudis, Anna; Kilewo, Charles; Leroy, Valériane; Wiktor, Stefan; Nduati, Ruth; Msellati, Philippe; Dabis, François; Newell, Marie Louise; Ghys, Peter D.

In: International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 40, No. 2, dyq255, 04.2011, p. 385-396.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Marston, M, Becquet, R, Zaba, B, Moulton, LH, Gray, G, Coovadia, H, Essex, M, Ekouevi, DK, Jackson, D, Coutsoudis, A, Kilewo, C, Leroy, V, Wiktor, S, Nduati, R, Msellati, P, Dabis, F, Newell, ML & Ghys, PD 2011, 'Net survival of perinatally and postnatally HIV-infected children: A pooled analysis of individual data from sub-Saharan Africa', International Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 40, no. 2, dyq255, pp. 385-396. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyq255
Marston, Milly ; Becquet, Renaud ; Zaba, Basia ; Moulton, Lawrence Hale ; Gray, Glenda ; Coovadia, Hoosen ; Essex, Max ; Ekouevi, Didier K. ; Jackson, Debra ; Coutsoudis, Anna ; Kilewo, Charles ; Leroy, Valériane ; Wiktor, Stefan ; Nduati, Ruth ; Msellati, Philippe ; Dabis, François ; Newell, Marie Louise ; Ghys, Peter D. / Net survival of perinatally and postnatally HIV-infected children : A pooled analysis of individual data from sub-Saharan Africa. In: International Journal of Epidemiology. 2011 ; Vol. 40, No. 2. pp. 385-396.
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AU - Moulton, Lawrence Hale

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AU - Coovadia, Hoosen

AU - Essex, Max

AU - Ekouevi, Didier K.

AU - Jackson, Debra

AU - Coutsoudis, Anna

AU - Kilewo, Charles

AU - Leroy, Valériane

AU - Wiktor, Stefan

AU - Nduati, Ruth

AU - Msellati, Philippe

AU - Dabis, François

AU - Newell, Marie Louise

AU - Ghys, Peter D.

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