Multivariate models for predicting progression to aids and survival in human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons

Stephen P. Blatt, William F. McCarthy, Barbara Bucko-Krasnicka, Gregory P. Melcher, R. Neal Boswell, Theodore M. Dolan, Theodore M. Freeman, Janice M. Rusnak, Rex E. Hensley, William W. Ward, Diana Barnes, Craig W. Hendrix, Stephen P. Blatt, Barbara Bucko-Krasnicka, R. Neal Boswell, Diana Barnes, Craig W. Hendrix

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Nine hundred thirty persons enrolled in the US Air Force Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Natural History Study were evaluated with a standard battery of 30 potential surrogate markers of disease progression. A risk score for predicting progression to AIDS was then calculated for each patient in the cohort by using the four highest-ranking variables from multivariate analysis: percentage of CD4 CD29 cells, anergy status, age, and hemoglobin. For predicting survival, Prmicroglobulin replaced age in the Cox model. Stratification according to the risk score demonstrated that rates of progression to AIDS and survival were significantly different between risk groups (P +.0001). The novel combination of these markers results in extremely accurate risk scores, which may serve as the basis for the development of true surrogate markers of disease progression.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)837-844
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Infectious Diseases
Volume171
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 1995

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology and Allergy
  • Infectious Diseases

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