Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics

Amy Wesolowski, Elisabeth Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Andrew J. Tatem, Christopher Lourenço, Cecile Viboud, Vivek Charu, Nathan Eagle, Kenth Engø-Monsen, Taimur Qureshi, Caroline O. Buckee, C. J.E. Metcalf

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Seasonal variation in human mobility is globally ubiquitous and affects the spatial spread of infectious diseases, but the ability to measure seasonality in human movement has been limited by data availability. Here, we use mobile phone data to quantify seasonal travel and directional asymmetries in Kenya, Namibia, and Pakistan, across a spectrum from rural nomadic populations to highly urbanized communities. We then model how the geographic spread of several acute pathogens with varying life histories could depend on country-wide connectivity fluctuations through the year. In all three countries, major national holidays are associated with shifts in the scope of travel. Within this broader pattern, the relative importance of particular routes also fluctuates over the course of the year, with increased travel from rural to urban communities after national holidays, for example. These changes in travel impact how fast communities are likely to be reached by an introduced pathogen.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number2069
JournalNature Communications
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2017

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Chemistry(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Cite this

Wesolowski, A., Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, E., Tatem, A. J., Lourenço, C., Viboud, C., Charu, V., ... Metcalf, C. J. E. (2017). Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics. Nature Communications, 8(1), [2069]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02064-4