Moderate predictive value of demographic and behavioral characteristics for a diagnosis of HPV16-positive and HPV16-negative head and neck cancer

Gypsyamber D'Souza, Hao H. Zhang, Warren D. D'Souza, Robert R. Meyer, Maura L. Gillison

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Patients with HPV-positive and HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are significantly different with regard to sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics that clinicians may use to assume tumor HPV status. Machine learning methods were used to evaluate the predictive value of patient characteristics and laboratory biomarkers of HPV exposure for a diagnosis of HPV16-positive HNSCC compared to in situ hybridization, the current gold-standard. Models that used a combination of demographic characteristics such as age, tobacco use, gender, and race had only moderate predictive value for tumor HPV status among all patients with HNSCC (positive predictive value [PPV] = 75%, negative predictive value [NPV] = 68%) or when limited to oropharynx cancer patients (PPV = 55%, NPV = 65%) and thus included a sizeable number of false positive and false negative predictions. Prediction was not improved by the addition of other demographic or behavioral factors (sexual behavior, income, education) or biomarkers of HPV16 exposure (L1, E6/7 antibodies or DNA in oral exfoliated cells). Patient demographic and behavioral characteristics as well as HPV biomarkers are not an accurate substitute for clinical testing of tumor HPV status.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)100-104
Number of pages5
JournalOral Oncology
Volume46
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2010

Fingerprint

Head and Neck Neoplasms
Demography
Biomarkers
Oropharyngeal Neoplasms
Neoplasms
Tobacco Use
Sexual Behavior
Gold
In Situ Hybridization
Education
Antibodies
DNA
Carcinoma, squamous cell of head and neck

Keywords

  • Antibodies
  • Cancer
  • HNSCC
  • HPV
  • Human papillomavirus
  • In situ
  • Machine learning
  • Oral HPV
  • Oropharyngeal
  • Prediction
  • Profiling
  • Screening
  • Tobacco
  • Tumor

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Oral Surgery
  • Cancer Research

Cite this

Moderate predictive value of demographic and behavioral characteristics for a diagnosis of HPV16-positive and HPV16-negative head and neck cancer. / D'Souza, Gypsyamber; Zhang, Hao H.; D'Souza, Warren D.; Meyer, Robert R.; Gillison, Maura L.

In: Oral Oncology, Vol. 46, No. 2, 02.2010, p. 100-104.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

D'Souza, Gypsyamber ; Zhang, Hao H. ; D'Souza, Warren D. ; Meyer, Robert R. ; Gillison, Maura L. / Moderate predictive value of demographic and behavioral characteristics for a diagnosis of HPV16-positive and HPV16-negative head and neck cancer. In: Oral Oncology. 2010 ; Vol. 46, No. 2. pp. 100-104.
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