TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling the spread of a viral infection in equine populations managed in Thoroughbred racehorse training yards
AU - De La Rua-Domenech, R.
AU - Reid, S. W.J.
AU - González-Zariquiey, A. E.
AU - Wood, J. L.N.
AU - Gettinby, G.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors are grateful to Professor M. Murray of the Department of Clinical Studies, University of Glasgow, Dr. J.A. Mumford and R. Newton, of the Centre for Preventive Medicine, Animal Health Trust, for their co-operation. The assistance of Mr. Edward A.L. Dunlop and his staff in data collection is also gratefully acknowledged. This work was funded by a Research Training Grant of the Agriculture and Fisheries Programme of the European Commission.
Copyright:
Copyright 2006 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2000/10/19
Y1 - 2000/10/19
N2 - A Monte Carlo model that simulates the management life cycle of a horse population in training on a Thoroughbred flat racing yard (i.e. stable) was developed for computer implementation. Each horse was characterised by several state variables. Discrete events at the horse level were triggered stochastically to reflect uncertainty about some input assumptions and heterogeneity of the horse population in a particular yard. This mathematical model was subsequently used to mimic the spread of equine influenza (EI) within a typical yard following the introduction of one or several infectious horses. Different scenarios were simulated to demonstrate the value of strategies for preventing outbreaks of EI. Under typical UK management conditions and vaccination protocols, the model showed that EI would propagate and that the timing of vaccination in connection with the racing season and the arrival of new horses was a critical factor. The predicted outcomes (based on published characteristics of one EI vaccine) suggested that vaccination in mid-December with boosters in June and September was a viable and successful strategy in preventing the spread of EI in a training establishment. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.
AB - A Monte Carlo model that simulates the management life cycle of a horse population in training on a Thoroughbred flat racing yard (i.e. stable) was developed for computer implementation. Each horse was characterised by several state variables. Discrete events at the horse level were triggered stochastically to reflect uncertainty about some input assumptions and heterogeneity of the horse population in a particular yard. This mathematical model was subsequently used to mimic the spread of equine influenza (EI) within a typical yard following the introduction of one or several infectious horses. Different scenarios were simulated to demonstrate the value of strategies for preventing outbreaks of EI. Under typical UK management conditions and vaccination protocols, the model showed that EI would propagate and that the timing of vaccination in connection with the racing season and the arrival of new horses was a critical factor. The predicted outcomes (based on published characteristics of one EI vaccine) suggested that vaccination in mid-December with boosters in June and September was a viable and successful strategy in preventing the spread of EI in a training establishment. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.
KW - Equine influenza virus
KW - Horse
KW - Modelling
KW - Stochastic simulation
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U2 - 10.1016/S0167-5877(00)00161-6
DO - 10.1016/S0167-5877(00)00161-6
M3 - Article
C2 - 11018735
AN - SCOPUS:0034687403
VL - 47
SP - 61
EP - 77
JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
SN - 0167-5877
IS - 1-2
ER -